Hungary has just suffered its driest summer since weather measurements began. Several lakes have emptied and heat has devastated the country's normally productive farmland. So drastic has been the drought that even in some areas near Budapest the flowers did not produce nectar and pollen, so the bees died of starvation.
Some archaeologists have not been surprised by this situation. Recent studies have revealed that, in the fifth century, a similar climatic moment could have led the animal herders of Eurasia to become bloodthirsty raiders who, commanded by Attila, put the all-powerful Roman Empire in check.
The Hunnic peoples would have emigrated to the west, abandoning their activities as farmers and herders to become violent invaders who assaulted the border provinces of the Danube, according to the researchers in an article published in the Journal of Roman Archeology.
Extreme droughts between 430 and 450 AD disrupted traditional ways of life in the eastern Roman Empire, forcing the Hunnic peoples to adopt new strategies to "protect themselves from severe economic challenges," say experts from the University of Cambridge.
Professor of archeology Susanne Hakenbeck and Professor Ulf Büntgen, from the Department of Geography, evaluated a new hydroclimatic reconstruction based on tree rings, data that was compared with both archaeological and historical evidence.
The Hun raids on central and eastern Europe in the 4th and 5th centuries AD. they have long been seen as the spark that sparked the so-called "Great Migrations" of the "Barbarian Tribes" that led to the fall of Rome. But where these peoples came from and what their impact was on the late Roman provinces was not entirely clear.
The new climate data provided information on annual changes in climate over the past 2,000 years. And they show that Hungary, for example, experienced unusually dry summers in the fourth and fifth centuries. Hakenbeck and Büntgen point out that climatic fluctuations, especially during periods of drought between AD 420 and 450. C., would have reduced the yield of crops and pastures for animals beyond the plains of the Danube and Tisza rivers.
A recent isotopic analysis of several skeletons found in the region suggests that the Hunnic peoples responded to climatic stress by migrating and mixing agricultural and pastoral diets. “If resource scarcity became too extreme, populations may have been forced to relocate, diversify their subsistence practices, and switch between agriculture and mobile grazing of animals,” says Hakenbeck.
The researchers also argue that some Hunnic peoples drastically changed their social and political organization to become violent raiders. This was how his attacks on the Roman frontier intensified after Attila came to power in the late 430s.
The Huns, traditionally portrayed as violent barbarians driven by an "infinite thirst for riches," demanded more and more payments in gold and eventually a swath of Roman territory along the Danube. In the year 451 they invaded Gaul and a year later they attacked northern Italy.
“Historical sources tell us that Roman and Hunnic diplomacy was extremely complex,” adds Hakenbeck. “Initially it was about win-win arrangements, which resulted in the Hunnic elites gaining access to large amounts of gold. This collaborative system broke down in the 440s, leading to regular raids on Roman lands and increased demand for gold,” he notes.
The most devastating raids were those in the years 447, 451 and 452, coinciding with extremely dry summers in the Carpathian Basin. “Weather-induced economic disruption may have required Attila and other high-ranking members to mine for gold from Roman provinces to support their soldiers and ensure loyalty among elites. The former herders seem to have turned into raiders," says Dr Hakenbeck.
According to his analysis, one of the reasons the Huns attacked the provinces of Thrace and Illyricum in 422, 442, and 447 was to acquire food and livestock, rather than gold. They also suggest that Attila demanded a strip of land "five days' travel width" along the Danube because this might have offered better pasture in a time of drought. By the year 450, just a few decades after their appearance in central Europe, the Huns had disappeared. Attila himself died in 453.
“Climate alters what environments can provide and this can lead people to make decisions that affect their economy and their social and political organization. Such decisions are not directly rational, nor are their consequences necessarily successful in the long term,” the researchers conclude.
