If there is one factor that can modify the forecasts for the next general elections on July 23 more than any other, it is the concern caused in a majority of Spaniards by the expectation of a coalition government between the Popular Party and Vox.
At least that's how it emerges from the poll by the consulting firm Ipsos for La Vanguardia, carried out between July 3 and 6. More than 60% of citizens express quite (18%) or a lot (42.1%) concern about the eventuality of an Executive with ministers from the ultra-right. The contrast with the concern that a Cabinet of continuity, with the PSOE and Sumar as partners, would generate is eloquent. In the latter case, only 26% show a lot of concern and 15%, a lot.
The most intense concern about a government colonized by the extreme right is located mainly in the center and the left, but the concern reaches the conservative voters themselves. In this sense, more than 81% of the voters of the PSOE in 2019 declare themselves very or quite concerned about a coalition government with the ultras, a rate that is close to 97% among those who supported United to Podemos at the time.
However, 46% of former Ciudadanos voters also express visible concern about a government coalition between PP and Vox, and up to one in four popular voters in 2019 (a rate that rises to 32% among those who already have decided to vote for Núñez Feijóo on July 23) shares that concern.
Even one in ten Vox voters also contemplates with uneasiness a government alliance with the popular, as if one thing were to launch incendiary chants from a rostrum and another, quite different, to put the ultras at the controls of the government of Spain.
On the contrary, more than 80% of those who voted for the PP or Vox four years ago contemplate with concern the continuity of the current left-wing coalition at the head of the Executive and only one in six conservative voters is indifferent or unconcerned.
Seen in retrospect, 38% of those who intend to vote now for the popular or the ultras reject the local and regional pacts that both forces have signed after the May 28 elections. And the paradox is accentuated when asking about those pacts who have decided to vote specifically for the PP on 23-J. In this case, up to 44% of those voters reject the local and regional government pacts signed with the extreme right.
Asked what kind of agreements the forces of the conservative bloc should have signed, the majority position – supported by 65% of those who plan to vote for Vox or the PP on 23-J – is to reach “agreements in all territories, but without governing together in coalition”. And only 25% support the formation of coalition governments in all municipalities and autonomies. Obviously, when Vox voters are questioned specifically, they are inclined in a ratio of six to four towards the formation of cabinets that include leaders of the extreme right.
However, the future goes beyond the agreements, so that the concerns of the Spaniards cover other aspects more focused on management priorities. In this sense, the concerns are clear: the first, the economy (and the difficulties caused by rising prices), which is indicated as the most urgent issue for the next government by 31% of those consulted. And further away appears unemployment (cited by 10%); health (9%), and housing (5%). Pensions, on the other hand, are only mentioned by 1% of citizens.
By vote recall, concern for the economy is lower on the left (up to 13 points below the average among Podemos voters), and much higher on the right (ten points above). Healthcare is of particular concern to the voters of the PSOE and Podemos (almost 15% mention it). And concern for housing reaches its highest levels (12% of mentions) among the electorate furthest to the left.
From there, the poll asks citizens about the party best able to manage the four most relevant problems: the economy, relations with Catalonia, unemployment and the daily problems of the Spanish. And the answers, once again, present some paradoxes in relation to electoral expectations.
This is certainly not the case in the case of the economy, where the PP appears as the most qualified to manage it, since 40% of those consulted point to this political formation (while only 31% allude to the Socialist Party). In fact, one in four PSOE voters also shares that favorable opinion of the Popular Party. On the other hand, the voters of Unidas Podemos are divided equally between the PSOE and Sumar, and Vox voters choose the PP to a greater extent, although 40% of them consider that the ultras would manage the economic situation in Spain much better.
On the rest of the issues, the PSOE –or the group of the left– registers a growing advantage with respect to the formations of the right. Thus, although the Popular Party (35%) also leads the PSOE (29%) on the issue of the fight against unemployment, the final balance is favorable to the left (45% compared to 41% for the PP plus Vox) when allusions to Sumar are also accounted for (15%). And the advantage is accentuated in managing the daily problems of Spaniards: 31% point to the Socialist Party as the most qualified to deal with them and 30% to the PP. But another 15% points to Sumar and only 8% to Vox. Eight points of advantage for the left, since up to one in five Ciudadanos voters points to the forces of that sign as the most apt to alleviate the daily difficulties of the population.
However, it is in the management of a matter of State as sensitive as relations with Catalonia where the preferences for the PSOE skyrocket. More than 37% of those consulted point to the Socialist Party as the most suitable formation to face this challenge, while only 21% allude to the PP and 8% to Vox. In turn, Sumar reaps 12% of mentions.
The paradox – if one takes into account the cross-cutting criticism of the pardons for the leaders of the procés and the recognized influence of this measure on the decantation of the vote – is that even 30% of Ciudadanos voters and one in seven popular voters point to the PSOE as the most suitable political group to resolve this complex territorial conflict. Of course, one in ten socialist voters of 2019 prefers the PP, and a slightly smaller number, Sumar.
