What happens in the next general elections will be decided, to a large extent, in the result of the 28M in the Valencian Community. It is not an exaggeration. This autonomy, the most important presided over by a socialist, Ximo Puig, is going to be the testing ground that will determine the solidity of the Valencian left, its ability to mobilize, once again, its electorate. And, most importantly, to verify the loyalty of the Podem and EU voters to overcome the 5% barrier in the Valencian Parliament. This coalition can be key in the possibility of revalidating a third Botànic.
But there is more. That day it will be possible to verify if the new breath of the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo serves the popular Valencians led by Carlos Mazón and María José Català to recover the main Valencian institutions with the support of Vox. If this is not achieved, it would be clear that the new PP still does not have the necessary muscle to achieve a fundamental objective with a strong symbolic charge, such as winning the Generalitat Valenciana and, also, the Valencia City Council. Previous step to conquer the Government of Spain.
The case of Madrid cannot be compared to that of Valencia: in Madrid, the right wing of Isabel Díaz Ayuso already governs with a comfortable majority, has managed to leave Vox close to insignificance and is close to hitting the ceiling, which would translate into an absolute majority on next 28M. In Madrid, Ayuso concentrates all the prominence, even above the role of Feijóo: she plays in a national key, she is the great opponent of Pedro Sánchez. In Madrid, moreover, the lefts have not been able to conjugate an exciting electoral proposal capable of defeating the right for a long time. With names and surnames, the PSM has neither the strength nor the leadership of the PSPV, nor has Más Madrid achieved the prominence acquired by Compromís to maintain the political change that began in the Valencian Community in 2015. In Madrid, even, Podemos is still far from playing the institutional role that Podem, together with Esquerra Unida, has developed in the Generalitat Valenciana.
What happens on 28M in Madrid will not serve to develop reasoned hypotheses about the roads that are being built to successfully reach the general elections, scheduled for the end of this year; in the Valencian Community yes. A failure of the Valencian left would be a bad omen for the possibility of concretizing Yolanda Díaz's Sumar project and for Podemos. It would, finally, be a clear sign that the presidency of Pedro Sánchez could end in a few months.
Ximo Puig called the 28M elections yesterday. In the coming days and until that date, the national media will pay a lot of attention to the Sánchez-Feijóo fight, and they will give a lot of space to Isabel Díaz Ayuso. But don't be fooled, the most determining factor on that day will be what happens in the Valencian Community and its capitals. Here will be the best keys, and we will know them soon. the 28M
