2023 has "a fairly high probability, more than 80%" of becoming the hottest ever recorded, says Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit scientific organization dedicated to climate research, in its latest report. To date, the hottest year on record is 2016, tied with 2020. This level of probability has increased over the months, and especially with the arrival of simultaneous heat waves in the United States, Europe, and parts of Asia; and that of El Niño, an intensified phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic waters off Florida.
After January, the figure was 14%, by the end of May, it had risen to 54%, and then came a staggeringly hot June, which has been declared the warmest ever recorded by Berkeley Earth, the Centers US National Environmental Information and the European Union Copernicus Climate Change Service, according to data collected by Bloomberg.
The Earth has already warmed 1.2°C since the pre-industrial era due to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This has resulted in a clear trend: 22 of the past 23 years were the hottest on record, according to the National Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA).
Meanwhile, in the United States, Phoenix, the capital of Arizona, accumulates a record: first, the city lived its eighteenth day above 43ºC on Monday and equaled its maximum record of 45ºC; Likewise, the minimum of 35ºC during the night exceeded its previous record of 33.8ºC (2009); and finally, it accumulates eight nights of minimums above 32.2ºC, another record.
Also in the United States, several very violent fires in the south of the state caused the evacuation of the population. The largest, "Rabbit Fire", burned some 3,200 hectares. In addition, an air quality alert has been activated for smoke from the Canadian fires.
Canada woke up Monday to 882 active fires, including 579 considered out of control, according to the Canadian Interagency Wildland Fire Center (CIFFC). Two firefighters have died in recent days, according to data collected by AFP. In total, more than ten million hectares have burned this year in the country.
In Europe, Greece is also facing uncontrolled fires, in this case, due to the winds. The most violent fire is in the Dervenohoria forest, 50 km north of Athens, involving 140 firefighters supported by six water pumps and a helicopter. In addition, evacuations have been carried out near Loutraki, about 80 kilometers west of Athens, and in Kouvaras, about 50 km east of the capital.
In the Balkan region, the alert for temperatures close to 40ºC (expected to increase from Thursday) and extreme fire risk extend to Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Croatia and Slovenia. In Italy, the island of Sardinia is expected to reach 47ºC and the death of a 90-year-old man from the heat has been registered in Cyprus, as well as the hospitalization of three others.
Lastly in Asia, Japan issued heat stroke alerts on Monday for 32 of its 47 regions, after experiencing temperatures close to its all-time high of 41.1°C (2018). This country is also facing torrential rains that have killed at least eight people. China broke a record for mid-July on Sunday, with 52.2 °C in the arid region of Xinjiang (west).
For weather watchers, the breakneck pace of summer temperature records is a long-predicted pattern. “I have been waiting for this for 20 years,” said Camille Parmesan, a professor at the National Center for Scientific Research and author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. “This will continue to happen as long as we are not reducing emissions.”
Among the factors that have driven this year's unprecedented heat trajectory, the aforementioned El Niño phenomenon stands out (a warming phenomenon that began in the equatorial Pacific and extends to almost the entire planet), the first in almost four years.
“Every time we have an El Niño event, we get a little glimpse into the future. This is what the new normal for climate is going to be 5 to 10 years from now if our emissions stay at current levels and don't decline rapidly,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth. "So we're going to have slightly higher than normal temperatures this year and next, but long-term climate change is going to rapidly push the planet into these hot levels all the time."
Worsening climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and El Niño is no exception. “Since 1950, El Niño has been much stronger than any other period between 1400 and 1950,” Parmesan says, citing a 2021 IPCC report she helped draft.
“We haven't had an El Niño event with this level of global warming,” says Brown University climate scientist Kim Cobb. "Maybe it's an obvious statement, but I think it still needs to be said." The implication is that we don't really know what to expect, Cobb cautions, adding that El Niño has only just begun "and is expected to get quite a bit stronger."
