Yugoslavian basketball. At the last second, the vote from outside is passed around the basket and gives one more deputy to the Popular Party to the detriment of the PSOE in the Community of Madrid. Alberto Núñez Feijóo continues to have very little chance of being invested as president of the Spanish government, but the expectations of Pedro Sánchez are complicated, who could now need the affirmative vote of Junts per Catalunya for all purposes if he does not previously convince Coalició Canària.
The Popular Party goes from 136 to 137 seats and the PSOE loses one deputy in Congress: from 122 to 121. The PP-Vox alliance has 170 deputies, which become 171 with the Unió del Poble Navarrès. They are five short of an absolute majority, but the Basque Nationalist Party has already announced that it is not available. These 171 deputies from the Manfred Weber bloc tie with the 171 seats that the PSOE could group together with Sumar, ERC, Bildu, PNB and BNG and that we could call the Olaf Scholz bloc. The resolution of the tie is in the hands of Coalició Canària (one seat) and Junts per Catalunya (seven deputies), with variables that we will explain a little later.
Before that, it is appropriate to underline the general framework, since very complicated days are coming that can make us forget that Spain is currently dealing with a very important episode of the struggle for positions that is taking place in the European Union when there are months left for the year 2024, time for the renewal of the European Commission, its presidency and its strategic line. The Bavarian conservative Manfred Weber is the president of the European People's Party and the main promoter of a policy of rapprochement with the far-right formations that allow themselves to be loved. Alberto Núñez Feijóo participates in this policy. The German Christian Democrats of the CDU, still loyal to Angela Merkel, are not entirely convinced of this orientation, as they fear the consequences.
The leadership of the EPP puts only two conditions on the ultras: that they do not attack the European Union head-on and that they remain loyal to the Atlantic Alliance in the face of the war in Ukraine. Brothers of Italy (Giorgia Meloni) and Vox (Santiago Abascal) dilate the pupils of Weber, who dreams of an enlarged conservative bloc that agrees with the liberals (led by Emmanuel Macron) and corners the social democrats in the negotiation of the future commission This scheme could leave the current German Federal Government, headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, currently the main point of support for the Spanish left in Europe, isolated.
Refreshed the general framework, we return to the tie at 171 between the two blocs after the CERA vote count, which will become official tomorrow, Monday. If the only representative of the Canarian Coalition leans towards Núñez Feijóo and turns his back on Sánchez, the socialist candidate is tied to the affirmative vote of Junts, which will require a very, very sealed pact. An approach by the Canarian Coalition to the socialists would return the option of abstention to Junts.
CC resurrected on May 28th. They have regained the government of the Canary Islands with the support of the Popular Party, but in that area of the Atlantic the trade winds comb and repair the pacts with great grace and sense of opportunity. The election of the president and the Bureau of the Congress is exciting on August 17. First big test in two weeks.
The vote of the people of Madrid abroad changes the parliamentary arithmetic and also the dynamics of the coming weeks and months. It speeds it up and can drive it crazy.
In the absence of Monday's official data, the CERA vote presents interesting paradoxes: residents abroad lean to the left in almost all provinces, with the exception of Madrid, Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Palencia , La Rioja, Soria, Malaga and Cadiz. The vote of Madrid residents abroad is a unique case. The ballots of the PP double those of the PSOE and they win a seat. In the rest of Spain, nothing changes. Madrid's political phenomenology is very intense. The Government of the Community of Madrid has a specific secretariat to assist Madrid residents living abroad.
Catalonia and the Basque Country decided on the result of July 23 and Madrid corrected it a little in extremis. This is the painting. Catalan businessmen are beginning to show their support for an agreement between Sánchez and Junts (see the information in the Economy section) and the PP, attention, sends friendly messages to Junts. Morse signs This summer, a lot of Catalan will be spoken in privacy.
Suddenly, we may be entering a new phase. Having become the new Count of Monte Cristo, Carles Puigdemont issues a statement from Brussels in which he explains the harassment he has been subjected to by the State apparatus and rejects pressure. Demand moral reparation before returning to the cold game of politics. This is your first step. He wants a new narrative.
Without the help of Alexandre Dumas, Spain is headed for repeat elections.
