The title of this article does not intend to parody any joke, but considering the electoral campaign, the question appears: what do the PP, Junts and ERC have in common these days? Very simple. For different reasons, the three are convinced that Salvador Illa is a puppet at the service of Pedro Sánchez. This is how they express it these days at rallies and electoral debates, while the PSC candidate is seen with a dolençós Sánchez who is looking for personal and political redemption for Catalan lands.
It is curious that the PP attributes to Illa a dependency of the Moncloa when no candidate of the popular Catalans has ever been autonomous with respect to the direction of Génova. But it is an accusation consistent with his strategy of including the socialists on the side of independence. The case of ERC and Junts requires a little more explanation.
Both Pere Aragonès and Carles Puigdemont, even more crudely, point to the fact that Illa is subject to the interests of Moncloa. In both cases it is emphasized that the PSC in the presidency of the Generalitat would be ineffective in defending the interests of Catalonia before the central government. The speech was already practiced with great success by Jordi Pujol. But Junts has now introduced into the debate that Illa must sacrifice the possibility of being president on the altar of Moncloa. In other words, to give way to Puigdemont so that he does not let Sánchez fall.
The fact is that this affair is not new either. It was 2006 and the president was José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. He had been elected two years earlier with the abstention of CiU and the favorable vote of ERC and EU. The Catalan elections were approaching and Artur Mas, then in the opposition, maintained a fluid relationship with Zapatero, with whom he had concluded an agreement on the Statute months earlier. In one of his private conversations, Mas hinted to the leader of the PSOE that, should he win the Catalan elections again, Zapatero should talk to José Montilla to prevent the PSC from redistributing a tripartite party and wresting from him the presidency of the Generalitat .
That martingale wouldn't have been too bad for Zapatero. Remember that he was in the minority. Perhaps not as precarious as Sánchez's current one, since he could have tried with ERC and EU. But at that time those alliances would have been very difficult for the PSOE to explain to the rest of Spain. More than Sánchez the pact with Podemos or Esquerra. On the other hand, CiU's support was most convenient. So Zapatero did not refuse the offer, but replied to Mas that, in any case, he should talk to Montilla about it. And so it was. The meeting lasted very little. And the result was that he repeated the tripartite.
Did that have consequences for Zapatero? The leader of the PSOE continued in power for a little over a year and after new elections he was again invested as president in April 2008, again with the abstention of CiU (ERC voted against it) . Then it would be the economic crisis that would put an end to that government. This does not mean that history must repeat itself exactly the same. Sánchez's circumstances are not Zapatero's. But above all, Puigdemont is not Mas.
In order for Illa to become president of the Generalitat, he does not so much need Sánchez's permission, as Feijóo states in the interview published by La Vanguardia today, but two conditions apart from winning the elections: the first, that there is no pro-independence majority viable, and the second, that ERC is willing to negotiate some kind of alliance with him.
The independence majority may be feasible in numbers, but it is complicated by the bad relations between ERC, Junts and the CUP. Whenever Puigdemont urges pro-independence unity, the ERC replies privately that he only wants it when he leads it. Instead, he chose to leave the Government. However, if there is such a majority, these parties would be forced to explore it and negotiate an independence roadmap that would also complicate things for Sánchez.
If for the first time in more than a decade there is not a viable pro-independence majority and, as most polls indicate, Illa wins the elections, the socialist would need support to be invested. Puigdemont will not give it, although the leader of the PSC has tried over the last few years to approach Junts, trusting that, little by little, his convergent soul would re-emerge. This has not been the case and, as long as the leadership is exercised by Puigdemont, this approach has failed. ERC has not completely closed the door on Illa, but their attitude will depend on the outcome of their fight with Junts. If they come out of that confrontation with flying colors it will be easier than if they are damaged.
The Catalan legislature began with a coalition government between ERC and Junts, endorsed by the CUP. It started with an independence majority. But the Republicans remained in the Generalitat thanks to the budgets approved with the PSC and the commons, in other words, a left-wing agreement. The predominant axis has changed in three years. The 12-M will set a new course that will also have effects on Spanish politics. Everyone agrees on this, from the PP to the pro-independence parties, and even the PSOE.
