Spain today was never as red as in 1983 or as blue as in 2011. The situation has been shading in other stages, with a predominance of red PSOE in 1987, 1991, 2003, 2007 and 2015, blue PP in 1995, or a certain balance, as in 2019. That is why the elections on May 28 are so relevant from a territorial point of view. After that appointment, the balance could be maintained: with Galicia, Castilla y León, Madrid, Andalusia and Murcia in the hands of the PP; and Asturias, Aragon, Valencia, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and the Balearic and Canary Islands in the hands of the PSOE.
But if that balance were to be broken through some autonomy of large geographic or demographic size (such as Aragon, Valencia or Castilla-La Mancha), territorial power would decisively tilt in favor of the PP, especially if the replacement occurred in the Valencian Community . Historical experience indicates that anything is possible in this last territory, governed in equal parts for 40 years by the left and the right. And although the forecasts are very tight, the plus of mobilization of the conservative electorate seems to play in favor of the relief. For this reason, if Valencia were to join the political color of Andalusia and Madrid, the popular ones would have a formidable territorial counterpower.
Now, beyond what the polls predict, what does the historical trajectory of each autonomy say about the possibilities of an alternation in local power on 28-M? The attached series of maps is eloquent, with communities that have only changed their political sign during a single legislature and whose governments tend to last forever, compared to others more prone to alternation.
From there, the survey forecasts fit quite well with the profile of each territory. For example, Castilla-La Mancha and, above all, Extremadura are autonomies where the replacement seems difficult, although not impossible because it has already happened before. For its part, Aragón (which sometimes behaves electorally like a small Spain) is a territory that has undergone many changes, but the current correlation makes it difficult to take over from the PSOE because the party map there is complex and no one, except the PP, seems willing to govern with the support of Vox.
The situation is similar in Navarra, where a relative victory for the right would not translate into a government majority, since the rest of the groups will predictably support the PSOE. On the other hand, La Rioja and the Balearic Islands, with a historical balance favorable to the conservative bloc, could easily change their political color on 28-M. And the same can be said of the Canary Islands, which has already registered socialist victories without an absolute majority that have not translated into access to the insular government before the pact between the regionalists and the PP.
On the contrary, Asturias and, above all, Madrid or Murcia draw trajectories and electoral scenarios where change is not seen as possible in the next regional elections. And as for Cantabria, history supports a tight struggle between the bloc made up of PP and Vox, on the one hand, and the one that supports the regionalist Revilla, on the other.
