Mikhaïl Khodorkovsky (Moscow, 1963) was an energy tycoon two decades ago and the sixteenth richest person in the world, according to Forbes, with 15,000 million. He ran the oil giant Yukos after a career in the Komsomol, the youth organization of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. But it all went downhill when the Kremlin accused him of tax evasion. He spent ten years and two months in a Siberian prison. Today he lives in London and is one of the main opponents of Putin.
The world is on hold. How do you see the future of Europe with the tensions in Ukraine and those that have opened up in the Middle East?
I think that in the medium term Ukraine will remain the main problem, and I expect the situation in Israel to be relatively complex in the short term. I think that with the level of support that Ukraine receives, we will have at least one more year of war and the economic development of Europe will not be greatly favored. But it should at least encourage Europe to start reindustrializing: in the military industry, in energy, developing its own sources, and not just green energy. In Spain, for example, there is enough solar energy, but there is not enough for the rest of Europe, where it is not so sunny. I think nuclear power would be needed and difficult decisions would have to be made. Where we should be careful is with our changes in support for the far right in Europe. Spain is the country with the most recent dictatorship. My impression is that the rest of Europe has already forgotten its dictatorships. Totalitarianism may want to try again.
There are energy disturbances again and you were a major entrepreneur in the sector. Do you see the possibility that these conflicts will lead to another crisis?
If there is an expansion or a widening of the crisis in the Middle East, it could happen. But hopefully that won't happen. I see no reason to think that there will be a serious disruption of the power supply. I think it plays more with fears.
Would Putin be interested in raising this energy tension?
Putin has a vested interest in injecting greater chaos into world politics. Energy prices are only one element of this game.
What consequences for oil and gas would it have if Iran became involved in the conflict in the Middle East?
What should worry us is that the conflict in the Middle East grows to the point of becoming a conflict between nuclear powers. But, of course, the conflict will also have an impact on prices. Global energy consumption is currently around one million tons per day, which is equivalent to around 100 million barrels of oil per day, these are exact figures. If Iran gets involved, it would not be significant, since Iran produces around two million barrels a day. It could mean a 2% reduction in global production. The problem is Gulf oil, if it were to be blocked. That would have a significant impact.
The gas market is also tight again. What situation do you see on the horizon?
Gas production is quite diversified. A few countries have the capacity to receive large volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and many countries in Europe are working in this direction. So I think the capacity is already increasing in the right direction. I see no reason for a huge price explosion like the one at the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
Does he think the Russian oil and gas veto and other sanctions are effective?
Yes. I believe that the sanctions that seek to boycott Russian oil in Europe have been effective because they have basically closed the market to Russia. And this was the premium market. Who buys Russian oil and gas? China and India, which pay lower prices. In addition, transportation has now multiplied and is much more expensive for Russia. The problem is that high oil prices make up for the losses. If the US were to negotiate with the Saudis for lower oil prices, it would make things much more difficult for Putin.
Does he think Europe should be tougher on Russia?
I think this is not only for Europe, but also for other countries. If the West wants technological sanctions to have an effect, they must apply them much more than they do now. In the case of oil, they are fulfilled in Europe, for the moment, quite well.
How do you see the future of Russia?
I believe that the future trajectory of Russia was predetermined by the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Today I don't think Russia will collapse, for now. But Putin's time in power will have an impact. If there is a regime change in Russia, Ukraine could return to its internationally recognized borders within five years. Furthermore, any future Russian government that wanted to restore good relations with the West would have to pay compensation to Ukraine. I also think that the problem is the current state of the Russian population, psychological, mental... It will take time, a few decades, for it to return to normal. If we succeed in implementing our project, turning Russia into a parliamentary republic, with deep federalization, imperial tendencies will also diminish, as the regions will be forced to look after their own interests and the leaders will have other ways to legitimize power than external aggression.
Is it possible to lead an opposition movement in Russia?
We are a democratic opposition. But there are other opposition groups against Putin. There are also nationalists, there are communists, they are also opponents of Putin. For this, a coalition model is needed. The democratic opposition speaks on behalf of around 20% of the Russian population. So if we want to make the transition to a democratic model, we should build coalitions. But if we talk about a single leader again, it will be another vicious circle of authoritarianism in Russia, which I would not like to be a part of.
