The Ministry of Defense is anxiously following the possible repercussions that the Wagner Group's mutiny in Russia may have in the Sahel, with countries where Spanish troops are deployed. This African transition zone between the Sahara desert, in the north, and the fertile savannas, in the south, has become a nest of terrorism where an amalgam of international organizations are fighting in a bloody way to gain control . There, Wagner's paramilitaries operate under agreements with governments to offer protection in exchange for being able to exploit valuable natural resources. But beyond its economic interests, the Russian group acts as a bulwark - committing atrocities - against the jihadist advance, one of the serious threats to Spanish national security.
One of the unknowns at the moment, according to military sources, is the future of Spanish forces in Africa. There are uniformed with the Spanish flag in the Ivorian Detachment (Senegal) who contribute to the air transport of military personnel and materials in the fight against the jihadist insurgency. In Somalia, under the umbrella of the European Union, national forces are trained to combat terrorism and piracy. In the Central African Republic, Spanish soldiers guide the reform of the armed forces of this country. And the most important, in Mali, where around 300 soldiers are helping the Malian army to improve its military capabilities.
The Minister of Defence, Margarita Robles, has reiterated that Spain will act in accordance with the rest of its European allies, but the fact is that major powers such as Germany and France have withdrawn their troops. Military sources assure that the Wagner mutiny will be a turning point in the near future, since if the paramilitary group stops operating in the area, the exit from the country "will be much closer". And it is at this point where there is "fear" that what happened two years ago in Afghanistan could be revived, where the allied troops left the country behind after the Taliban took Kabul, which meant that the years of ' advances in the country were left for now.
The leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has assured that the group will be dismantled on July 1. However, Spanish military intelligence sources suspect that the mercenaries will remain in Africa. And if it is not under Wagner's umbrella, other criminal organizations will "emerge" dedicated to plundering valuable natural resources by taking advantage of political and security instability. An expanding market.
If the scenario of Wagner's disappearance is disturbing for the reasons stated, the alternative, that the mercenaries continue to spread their tentacles, is just as worrying. Félix Arteaga, principal researcher at the Royal Elcano Institute, explains to La Vanguardia that the Russian disinformation campaigns deployed in Africa have provoked local hatred towards European troops - with suspicions of colonialism - which is "very difficult" for them to maintain its presence in the Sahel area.
This, in the eyes of the researcher, will probably lead to the suspension of foreign military activities, even if there are some effective witnesses.
And what is the alternative? Arteaga's thesis, which is supported by the rest of the military sources consulted, demands the relief that European countries should give to Morocco or Algeria, so that they assume a role of assistance and fight against terrorism. He argues that European partners (including Spain) are gradually losing ground; they will fall back on the capitals and leave large areas of the Sahel in the hands of the insurgency.
"A serious risk because we can see a phenomenon similar to what happened with the Islamic State at the time. Morocco and Algeria, instead of arming themselves to challenge each other militarily, must assume international support in the fight against terrorism. It would be easier because they are much more legitimized [than the Europeans]", he explains. "It's his backyard," says researcher Arteaga.
The possible contagion of this destabilization in northern Europe, which is not a likely scenario in the short term, is one of the major challenges for national security. And this area is indeed the Spanish (and European) "backyard".
