Ukraine is suffering from historical bad luck. Due to its geographical location, it has been the corridor through which invaders have come and gone from Napoleon to Hitler. Stalin tried to starve them out during the Red Terror, and when they gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin started a war to carve out part of their territory. A conflict so unequal, that only international aid could prevent the Ukrainian crush and the Russian military parade.
At first, the reaction of Europe and especially the United States indicated that they were ready to teach the abuser a lesson. But once again luck has turned its back on the Ukrainians. The war between Israel and Hamas has shifted the focus of international attention and Ukraine is on the verge of becoming a nuisance that everyone wants to burst as soon as possible.
While Russia is rebuilding alliances with usual suspects such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to raise the price of oil, in the US Senate Republicans are blocking $50 billion in aid to Ukraine to contain the Russian offensive. Europe raises its profile as Don Tancredo, avoiding the problem as the war effort begins to gnaw at the foundations of the spa. And since misfortunes never come alone, in both the United States and the European Union next year is an election year, the president and parliament will be elected respectively. As the call to the polls approaches, the debate will focus on internal trafficking while external battles will be diluted, especially if it is a war like the one in Ukraine, which the Americans have a long way to go. far and surpasses the Europeans in reaction capacity and will.
Finally, as usually happens in all wars, it is known long before the end who will win it. Everything points to the fact that the chances of a Ukrainian victory are increasingly remote, while the volume of voices clamoring for a bad agreement with the invader is increasing in the face of a hypothetical defeat of the invaded. All this, added to the growing opposition to President Zelenski, portends a very hard winter in Ukraine.
