Xavier Trias is the candidate who leads the preferences of the participants in the interactive survey by Public Affais Experts for La Vanguardia on the municipal elections in Barcelona that was launched a week ago and to which, as of yesterday, more than 12,700 people. According to these first data, the mayor of Junts, who announced a few days ago that he will stand in the elections under the name of Trias per Barcelona, is the head of the list most like-minded for practically one in three voters.
With the data collected so far, Trias arouses the preferences of 31.57% of the participants in this survey, well ahead of the socialist Jaume Collboni, with 18.69%, and the current mayoress of Barcelona and leader of BComú, Ada Colau, which is the one with the greatest affinity for 16.62%. More distant appears the mayor of Esquerra Republicana, Ernest Maragall (10.39%).
After the big four, the party that has the best chance of obtaining representation in the Barcelona City Council is the PP, whose candidate, Daniel Sirera, is the one selected by 5.69% of the participants in this survey. Next are the candidate for Valents, Eva Parera (5.28%), and the head of the Ciudadanos list, Anna Grau (4.29%). Close the list of preferences the number one of Vox, Gonzalo del Oro (3.99%), and the CUP candidate, Basha Changue (3.51%).
The results of this first week already make it possible to define the profiles of voters for each formation based on age and the district in which they reside. Thus, it can be seen that both Junts and ERC and the PSC attract an older voter while the majority of BComú voters are in the range from 35 to 49 years of age. Something similar happens with the parties with less representation: Cs and PP have their most regular audience between 50 and 64 years old, while the newer parties or with a more disruptive discourse tend to be located in the age range of 35 to 49 years.
The parties that, proportionally to their electoral weight, most seduce young voters (from 25 to 34 years old) are the CUP (the participants in the survey who are this age represent 26.9% of the voters of this formation), Vox (21.1%), BComú (20.9%) and Valents (20.5%). Voters of this age do not exceed 20% in the case of the rest of the formations with representation in the Barcelona City Council.
In the territorial distribution of the vote indicated so far by the Public Affairs Experts survey for La Vanguardia, former mayor Trias also has an advantage with two months to go before the municipal elections are held.
The participants in this opinion study have a clear preference for the Junts candidate, who is the most elected in seven of the ten districts of Barcelona. Xavier Trias obtained his peak in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, where with 43.5% of the preferences he was almost 30 points ahead of the second best positioned candidate. the leader of the PSC ranks, Jaume Collboni (14.5%).
Xavier Trias also wins widely in Les Corts (36.5%) and Eixample (34.3%) and adds to the leadership in these districts those of Gràcia, Horta-Guinardó, Sant Andreu and Sant Martí.
In second place, with practically equal percentages, are BComú and PSC, with technical ties in Horta-Guinardó, Nou Barris, Sant Andreu and Sant Martí. In Ciutat Vella the commons outnumber the socialists by a wide margin.
ERC is positioned below. As usually happens in almost all elections, the party headed by Ernest Maragall has its most loyal electorate in the Gràcia district, while its worst results are in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Nou Barris.
Of the parties with less representation, the notable support that the PP retains in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi stands out. Valents has its strongest presence in Nou Barris, the CUP in Sant Andreu, Ciudadanos in Les Corts and Vox in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi.
The typical voter for Trias is a person between the ages of 50 and 64 who lives in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi. The ERC voter is in the same age group as the Junts voter and resides in Gràcia and Sants-Montjuïc.
The socialist voter profile repeats age (50-64 years) and is found preferably in the districts of Nou Barris, Sant Martí and Sant Andreu. The common one is younger (35-49 years old) and is domiciled in Nou Barris, Ciutat Vella and Sants-Montjuïc.
Those related to the PP are found, above all, in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Les Corts and are between 50 and 64 years old, the same age as Ciudadanos voters, although these, in addition to Les Corts, preferably live in Ciutat Vella, Sants -Montjuïc and Nou Barris.
The participants in the survey related to Valents, the CUP and Vox are people between 35 and 49 years old. Those of Valents reside in Nou Barris, those of Vox in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and those of the CUP in Sant Andreu.
