Until now, the SNP and Scottish independence were almost synonymous. The pursuit of sovereignty has been the party's raison d'être, and the party has been the major channeler (with the support of the Greens and other small parties) of the crusade for separation from the rest of Britain. But following Nicola Sturgeon's arrest a week ago, that link appears to have broken.
The Scottish National Party had been rocked by the scandal of allegations of rape and sexual abuse against its former leader Alex Salmond (who was found not guilty), the subsequent schism and internal war between him and his successor – old allies turned in mortal enemies -, the arrest of chief executive Peter Murrel - Sturgeon's husband -, the disappearance of 750,000 euros from the party's coffers... But finally the erosion is palpable. Not that the house has to fall off the cliff, but it teeters.
A poll published yesterday predicts what seemed unthinkable: that Labor will get more seats (26) than the SNP (21, with 34% of the vote) in the next British general election, scheduled for the end of next year , and in which everything points to the end of an era of Conservative rule in the UK. The Tories would add one MP to the six they currently have, and the Liberals would be reduced to five. A real revolution in the political landscape of the country and a shock for the followers who are now led by Humza Yousaf.
The SNP has exercised a virtual monopoly in Scotland since 2010, winning election after election and winning 56 of the 59 MPs in Westminster. It currently has 45, but if the survey is on track, they would be less than half, while Labor would go from having only one representative to nearly thirty. It could be the key to an absolute majority for Keir Starmer in the UK as a whole.
Before 2010, Labor was the majority party in Scotland, with a collectivist tradition that does not exist in England and where the industrial reforms of the 1980s generated an enormous revulsion towards the figure of Margaret Thatcher in particular, and the Conservatives Generally. Many of his voters, disillusioned with Tony Blair's turn to the center and his support for the Iraq war, defected to the SNP (a party that could be left of center but pro-business and well connected to the bourgeoisie and the business community), even if the search for independence was not their absolute priority.
In the sovereignty referendum of 2014 it turned out not, but both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon were perceived as better politicians than their English contemporaries (Cameron, May, Johnson...) and generally good managers. That image began to deteriorate over the past two years with poor results in the areas of public health, education and crime, giving its enemies arguments to say that the obsession with independence had led to neglect of the daily administration.
The disappearance from party coffers of money raised for a second independence referendum, Murrell's arrest and the discovery at his mother's home of a luxury motorhome valued at €120,000 were a significant blow to to the SNP, but the hemorrhaging of support, votes and seats seemed under control. The arrest of Sturgeon (released without charge, but the investigation continues), however, has caused the tourniquet to stop working and the blood to bubble up. The medical prognosis is no longer to lose 8 or 10 of its 45 deputies in next year's elections, but more than half and be left with 21. A disaster that forces us to rethink everything.
If confirmed, it would be the end of an electoral cycle that began thirteen years ago, and the reverse of what happened in 2010, when the SNP overtook Labour. Support for independence remains very strong (47%), but saying yes to sovereignty is no longer saying yes to a party that has lost its way and needs a new strategy and new leaders.
