The direction that the political fray has taken in Madrid, especially during the electoral campaign, threatens to break the calm in which the always polarized Navarrese politics had settled. The crisis of the regional right, which is divided into the acronyms of UPN, PP, Vox and Ciudadanos, heralded a more than likely reissue of the progressive and quiet government of the socialist María Chivite, with the Geroa Bai coalition of former president Uxue Barkos as senior partner. Less than a week before the elections, it is still the most likely; however, the PP's strategy of focusing its campaign on EH Bildu and the confirmation that it will not abandon this line may condition the Navarrese scenario.
The political map in the foral community is complex. EH Bildu is the dominant force in the northern third, while it is second in Pamplona and in most of the municipalities in its conurbation. In this area, the most populated, the Navarrese right is stronger, in a tough fight with the Abertzale coalition. The PSN and Geroa Bai are fighting for the third position in most of the towns in the metropolitan area, although they have their fiefdoms. A little further south, in the Estella and Tafalla regions, headwaters where EH Bildu governs, the parameters are similar. In the entire southern third, finally, regionalists and socialists are hegemonic.
Between Lesaka and Buñuel there are 180 kilometers, but nothing is the same in political, social or linguistic terms. Not even the landscape bears the same. This sociopolitical diversity was conditioned for decades by ETA terrorism, which stained everything. The end of the violence in 2011, however, forced all the parties to reposition themselves.
The repositioning of the PSN is especially interesting. The Socialists got along with UPN for two decades. In 2015, however, the Basque Uxue Barkos reached the regional presidency, forming an alternative majority that did not need the votes of the PSN. The leader of Geroa Bai, a coalition that brings together the PNV and Geroa Socialverdes, governed for four years with the support of EH Bildu and the forces to the left of the PSN. The Socialists had hit rock bottom at the electoral level due to their acquiescence with respect to UPN. But they were recomposed in 2019, by the hand of Chivite.
The socialist president has been able to lead a plural alternative to the right with the fundamental support of Geroa Bai and the forces to her left, who on Sunday compete with the Contigo-Zurekin brand. Chivite has also needed the external support of EH Bildu. The formula was unknown at the beginning of the legislature; however, the tensions during these years have been significantly lower than between the opposition parties.
In these conditions Chivite arrived at the electoral campaign, with many possibilities of revalidating this formula against a broken Navarrese right and in the middle of a fratricidal war. The socialist president was cherishing re-election, according to the polls, and there were no major pitfalls on the horizon. Until the echoes of the political fray in Madrid have reached the old kingdom.
Navarra has always been sensitive to the rise in political temperature in Madrid. The prolonged rapprochement of the PSN to UPN was almost always decided in Ferraz. The end of the violence and the fall of the Navarrese socialists led to the end of that entente. The feeling in recent years was that EH Bildu was participating in the democratic game as one more actor. In the last legislatures he has been part of the regional government or has supported it externally. He has also reached the mayoralty of six of the ten main Navarrese municipalities, Pamplona included (2015-2019).
This electoral campaign, on the other hand, the PP has questioned the legitimacy of reaching agreements with this formation and has brought it to the fore, even though even the popular ones have reached agreements in the past. Will the pressure of the PP condition the come from the PSOE in Navarra? It is most likely that this is not the case as far as the Government is concerned, given that, if the data provided by the polls is confirmed, Chivite could reissue a government in which EH Bildu would only be an external support. But you also have to look at the municipalities. And that is where the case of Pamplona comes in.
The polls reflect a tight struggle between UPN and EH Bildu in the Navarrese capital. The regionalists are likely to be the leading force, but far from the majority. The PSN will have the last word. Four years ago he abstained and led to the return to the mayoralty of UPN. The nationalist coalition could demand socialist support in Pamplona in exchange for supporting the investiture of Chivite. The Socialists will have the keys to the kingdom, although it is not clear how they will use them. The rise in temperature in Madrid can overheat the Navarrese scene on the eve of the Sanfermines.
