The new post-electoral scenario drawn by the external vote count substantially changes the coordinates in which Spanish politics had moved in recent days. The PP takes a seat from the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez is no longer worth it just with the abstention of Junts - in addition to the support of the bloc of the investiture of the last legislature - to continue in Moncloa. An affirmative vote is now required from the party of former president Carles Puigdemont.
So, with the new block arithmetic, the PP has 137 seats – the same ones that Mariano Rajoy won in 2016 – and seems ready to forget a good part of the statements made in recent days by its leaders. Now the popular people do not rule out talking to Junts "within the Constitution" if necessary, which places the pro-independence formation in the center of the board, both for the progressive and conservative majority.
The deputy secretary of autonomous and local coordination of the PP, Pedro Rollán, made it clear yesterday: "The Popular Party is ready to talk to all political formations as long as it is within the framework of the Spanish Constitution", he said, when asked specifically for a possible agreement with Junts. His only veto was for EH Bildu. And he took the opportunity to remind the PSOE that the abstention of its deputies facilitated the investiture of Mariano Rajoy in 2016.
Before seeing what steps the PP takes, Rollán's words mark a turning point in the strategy followed so far by the party. Leaders such as Isabel Díaz Ayuso have described an eventual rapprochement of the PSOE with Puigdemont's formation as a "pact to govern with criminals and pro-independence". For its part, Junts rules out agreements with the right.
And another formation that takes center stage in the new balance of forces is Coalició Canària. Her only deputy can be key to breaking the tie of 171 deputies between the bloc of the right – PP, Vox and UPN – and the bloc of the left – PSOE, Sumar, ERC, EH Bildu and BNG – with the PNB.
For now CC has made it clear that it will not support an investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo if he governs with Vox. Therefore, if Sánchez gets the support of the Canarian deputy, he would return to the previous stage, in which the abstention of Junts is enough to repeat as president of the government.
What remains unchanged for now is the strategy that Junts proposed on the night of July 23, and which depends on shaking off the pressure, now that they are in the spotlight, and not rushing. They know that they hold the key to governance and that negotiation goes a long way. And Puigdemont will have a decisive role, even if he does not formally hold any organic position in the direction of Junts.
In a long message published yesterday on his Twitter account, the former president warned that they will not give in to "pressure" or "political blackmail". "Whoever believes that by exerting pressure or directly practicing political blackmail will obtain some tactical benefit, the effort can be saved. At least, in my case", he stressed.
Puigdemont asked for "discretion" and asked his colleagues to exercise "prudence", because he considers that it is not clear that Sánchez will seek his support for an eventual investiture. According to the former president, on paper there are up to three options: that the PSOE abstain and endorse the investiture of Feijóo or another popular candidate, that the PSOE obtain the support of Junts, or that there be a repeat electoral And he already advanced that "under similar circumstances, [the socialists] preferred to repeat the elections". "Therefore, it is necessary to maintain discretion and exercise extreme caution", he concluded.
Junts' conditions for supporting the investiture are the holding of a binding referendum and an amnesty law for all causes related to the process, although there are those in the party who would like a more possibilistic negotiation after the PSOE has responded with a no to any demand that exceeds the constitutional framework.
It is also necessary to see if Junts negotiates alone with the socialists or if it goes with the arm of ERC to set the price of an eventual investment. The two parties have addressed each other these days with good words to build a common front in Madrid, and yesterday several republican leaders left the door open to a return of Junts to the Catalan Executive. But that possibility would require a well-crafted strategic agreement between the two forces, they warn. And, in addition, Junts wants to open this process to the CUP and the sovereignist entities.
The first key date is August 17, with the constitution of Congress and the Senate. Until then, there is still a lot of negotiating to do.
