With just over a month to go until the momentous July 23rd, several surveys place the Popular Party of Alberto Núñez Feijóo as the clear winner of the next general elections with the possibility of governing with Vox and some leave it very close to an absolute majority.
The June barometer of 40dB for El País and La Ser indicates this Monday that the PP "would win the elections with an estimated 33% vote and 136 seats", which is 47 more than it currently has in Congress. In addition, he values that in the event that the popular ally with Vox, as they have done in various regional and municipal governments, they would gather a total of 174 seats, only two away from the absolute majority. In the case of the PSOE, the 40dB poll indicates that it could lose up to 14 representatives in these elections, which would leave the party with only 106 seats in Congress.
A few weeks ago the same survey showed a more favorable outlook for Pedro Sánchez, based on a hypothetical scenario of union of the parties with the left of the PSOE. Everything indicates that the difficult negotiations between Podemos and Sumar have taken their toll on that political space, which has lost six seats. Yolanda Díaz's party went from having 41 seats to 35. The El País poll shows Vox with an advantage over Sumar with 14% of voting intentions and 38 seats.
Unlike the survey published in El País, barometers such as Sociometrica for El Español establish that the union between the PP and Vox will ensure the right-wing bloc achieves an absolute majority of 176 deputies in Congress in the general elections. The latest survey carried out by IMOP-Insights for El Confidencial also presents Feijóo as the future winner of 23-J, however this indicates that the PP will depend on Vox to be able to govern.
On the other hand, the results obtained in the NC Report barometer for La Razón indicate that Feijóo's party can achieve an absolute majority and govern without the need to agree with other parties. The La Razón poll records that the PP stands today at a voting intention of 34.7%, which represents between 145 and 147 seats and a growth that is close to 60 seats for the popular formation with respect to those it had during this last legislature. The survey predicts that Feijóo's party will achieve a comfortable absolute majority of between 183-187 deputies, while the PSOE and Sumar will remain at 126-130 seats. For La Razón this means that "not even with all the current partners, uniting Junts, Pedro Sánchez could continue in the Government."
In most of the polls in June it can be seen that the PP's pact with Santiago Abascal's coalition in the Valencian Community has not affected Feijóo's chances of winning. The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo is the only one that reflects a slight setback in the intention to vote for the PP after the Valencian Community pact. However, even with this drop in support for the popular, the poll continues to give Feijóo victory. He points out that the PP would obtain 34.1% of the votes and 141 seats, while Vox would obtain 13.2% and 36 representatives. In this way, the sum of both formations reaches 177 deputies, one more than necessary to have an absolute majority. The PSOE would have 28.7% of the votes, which would allow it to surpass the results of 2019, but it would still be a long way from those of Feijóo
The barometer carried out by the CIS this June is the only survey that gives victory to Sánchez's PSOE this 23-J. The CIS estimates that the PSOE will win with 31.2% of the votes and values that the popular will lose with a difference of half a point (with 30.7% of the votes). The survey has indicated that Sumar de Yolanda Díaz will be in third place and the coalition of Santiago Abascal in fourth.
