The PNV and EH-Bildu would tie for seats in the Basque elections being held this Sunday, but the jetzale candidate, Imanol Pradales, would have it in his power to govern if they reissue the agreement with the PSE-EE of Eneko Andueza, according to an estimate by EiTB , RTVE and GAD3 carried out 24 hours before the appointment with the polls.
According to the vote estimate, the PNV would obtain between 26 and 28 seats, the same as Bildu, but it would beat the Abertzales in percentage of the vote (35.7% compared to Bildu's 32.9%). Despite the eventual tie in seats, the victory in votes would make Pradales' candidacy proclaimed the winner, thus arming himself with arguments to preside over the lehendakaritza through the pacts. The PSE-EE, a coalition partner to date, is in a position to reissue the agreement by contributing its 10-12 deputies to the cause awarded to it by the poll.
However, the victory in votes for the PNV would not hide the good results of Pello Otxandiano's candidacy, which would increase its parliamentary representation between 5 and 7 seats compared to those obtained in the previous elections (2020). Nor would these results hide the loss of support for the PNV in these elections, with a decrease of between 3 and 5 seats.
Despite the PNV's victory, a look at the predictions by province gives an idea of how close the result is expected. The jetzales would only prevail in one province, Bizaia, where they would obtain 11 deputies compared to Bildu's 7-8. And the Abertzales would win in Gipuzkoa (11 compared to PNV's 8-9) and Araba (8-9 compared to Bildu's 7-8).
Despite this scenario, and despite the significant increase in support that EH Bildu would register, Otxandiano's candidacy would be on the verge of dethroning the PNV, which since 1980 has governed practically uninterruptedly in the Basque Country, except for the period included between 2009 and 2012, when a pact between the PSE and the PP gave the socialist Patxi López the lehendakaritza for the first and only time.
The survey made public at the close of the polling stations also reflects an increase in the PP by one seat in the Basque Country (from the 6 it currently has to the 7 indicated in the survey). And the collapse of Podemos, which would go from the 6 parliamentarians it has in the Basque Parliament to 1-2. Sumar would not even be guaranteed parliamentary representation because the poll predicts between 0 and 2 parliamentarians, and Vox would lose the only seat they had until now.
A total of 1,795,212 Basques are called to the polls this Sunday to elect their new Parliament, from whose majorities will also emerge the new Executive with its Lehendakari. In principle, the socialists have announced that they will not invest the candidate for EH Bildu's lehendakari, Pello Otxandiano, so their intention is to reissue a government with Imanol Pradales at the helm, unless Sumar and Podemos make a splash and add enough to make the Abertzale candidate president, after abjuring in the campaign the model of the party that has been in power since the restoration of democracy.
Each of the three Basque provinces elects 25 of the 75 deputies of the Basque Parliament despite their demographic asymmetry, since only 261,623 people can vote in Álava, compared to 945,878 in Vizcaya and 587,711 in Guipúzcoa. Of the total number of Basques called to vote, 75,634 are young people who have turned 18 after the 2020 elections and will do so for the first time. But, even with them, the number of voters has not increased by even 1,000 compared to the last regional elections, when 1,794,316 were able to vote.
