Neither the imputation of thirty-four counts of forgery linked to the bribery of porn actress Stormy Daniels nor the subsequent conviction for sexual assault and defamation of writer Jean Carroll did not shake former president and again candidate Donald Trump in terms of 'vote expectation. But the voters' love for the ex-leader of the extreme right may not be infinite, unconditional and eternal. What social and political scenario does Trump face now that he has been charged with seven federal felonies for taking home and refusing to turn over hundreds of secret papers?
Republicans have a tough ballot. And in their decision, for or against continuing to bet on their extremist leader, the temperature of public opinion will be a key aspect. For now, a poll by the polling firm YouGov shows that Americans see the Daniels and Carroll cases as less thorny than the one concerning the hiding of classified documents at the Mar-a-Lago residence, as well that of the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Faced with 52% of citizens who judge as a “serious crime” the falsification of business records to mask secret payments to an adult film star, the proportion of voters which qualify the concealment and retention of classified documents as such amounts to 65%.
Among Republicans, that is to say those who generally like Trump, the same comparison jumps from 28% to 42% between those who see the falsification for that bribe as "serious" and those who put this label on the alleged crimes in the Mar-a-Lago case. In addition, 50% of the Republicans consulted - and 66% of the population in general - also see a serious conspiracy to overturn the results of presidential elections, which is the crime that the Prosecutor's Office believes that Trump was able to commit in the 'state of Georgia. Likewise, 47% of conservatives and 64% of citizens as a whole consider the incitement to an insurrection like the one that clearly took place in the assault on the Capitol equally serious.
Should Trump be allowed to run for president again if convicted of a "serious crime"? Only 23% overall said yes to 62% who said no. In the Republican camp, only 39% said that in that case he should be removed from the White House, while 43% thought that he should be allowed to continue despite everything.
The conclusion seems clear. A sentence and perhaps a firm imputation against Trump for federal crimes like those attributed to him by the prosecutor in the Mar-a-Lago matter would deprive him of support from the independent or undecided electorate. Republican voters show more doubts. So, while the incidence of the recent imputation in the Republican primaries could be limited, the impact on the presidential primaries is shaping up to be considerable.
With a view to the primaries, the multitude of rivals facing the ex-president immediately favors his vote expectations. They are, for now, eleven opponents. Both the math and the rules of those elections and the tendencies of voters in these types of situations make this influx of competitors good news for Trump, who in this way divides his critics and acquires a better chance of defeating them .
According to the polls published until Friday and compiled by FiveThirtyEight analysts, the ultra leader leads by far the vote expectation for the primaries, with an index of more than 53% that places him well ahead of this long dozen of rivals . Only the governor of Florida and runner-up in the race, Ron DeSantis, collects double-digit support, with a little less than 22%. The others do not even come close to 10%. Former Vice President Mike Pence entered the race last Monday, with 5.4% of the vote. He is followed by former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, with 4.5%; businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with 3.5%, and senator Tim Scott with 2.2%. Neither the embattled former New Jersey governor Chris Christie nor former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, to name other prominent rivals, averaged more than 1% in the latest polls this month, from according to FiveThirtyEight's calculation.
The multitude of contenders benefits Trump in different ways. Starting with the election system, which the former president himself helped modify in his favor. The starting situation is a significant portion of republican states where the aspirant who wins the primaries takes all the delegates who will vote in the national election of the candidate of the formation; in many other states, a method similar to the D'Hondt law means that the two or three candidates with the most votes share the entire pie.
After the experience of 2016, in which the abundance of opponents had already determined his success, Trump pushed wherever he could the "winner takes all" rule, to the point that the number of states where he governs went under his mandate from 7 to 17, according to a Bloomberg study.
With all these numbers on the table, it is still impossible to predict the extent to which Trump's impeachment and possible prosecution may erode the base that supports him and, consequently, cause a turn between party leaders and conservative donors.
Less unpredictable is Trump's reaction. It will be brutal. Or he will have stopped being Trump.
