The investiture of the socialist María Chivite is cooking over a very slow heat in Navarra. Four weeks after the elections, the acting president continues to have all the options to be re-elected, but the elections on July 23 condition the path to the Palacio de Navarra. Two fronts appear on her negotiating agenda. She must negotiate, first of all, with her partners: the Basque coalition Geroa Bai and Contigo / Zurekin, which brings together Podemos, IU and Batzarre. Secondly, it will need the abstention of EH Bildu, which in principle will seek to make them choose between voting for a progressive government without counterparties or an eventual electoral repetition.
The possibilities of success of the inauguration of Chivite are sustained, above all, in the successful precedent of the last legislature and in the verification that the rest of the options are unfeasible. The three forces to his right, UPN, PP and Vox, are far from the majority (they have 20 out of 50 seats), and a progressive government is not possible without the PSN, returning to the formula that Uxue Barkos led in 2015 (Geroa Bai , Bildu and Contigo/Zurekin add up to 19 parliamentarians). An understanding between the Socialists and UPN (they would add up to 26), returning to a formula that bled the PSN dry in the past, today seems impossible, so that Chivite has some control over the situation and, in fact, it is very likely that the infeasibility of these alternatives was maintained if the elections were repeated.
For the moment, the first negotiating front advances at a tedious pace. The only breakthrough has been the agreement that has allowed the re-election of Unai Hualde (Geroa Bai) as president of Parliament. PSN, Geroa Bai and Contigo/Zurekin must still negotiate on the government program and the distribution of counseling. Geroa Bai has already made public his discrepancies with how the PSN is handling the negotiation.
As for the second front, the Socialists insist that they will not sit down to negotiate with Bildu in exchange for their abstention. For the moment, the PSN has made it possible with its blank vote for the mayoralty of Pamplona to go to UPN, instead of for the abertzale formation, second in the city. The anger is evident in the coalition; however, it is unlikely that they will opt to unhorse Chivite. The law that governs the Navarrese self-government establishes that if within three months from the elections "no candidate is presented or none of those presented has been elected" elections will be called "immediately".
Is an eventual understanding with Bildu an insurmountable obstacle? It does not seem so, as long as it is limited to an understanding of issues of a social nature. The PSN revalidated its good results in 2019 in May after having agreed with the Abertzale coalition on issues of an eminently social nature. The problem is south of the Ebro, especially because of those elections on 23-J. The use that a PP with many open fronts with respect to Vox could make of any dialogue with Bildu, even if it was to close an abstention, paralyzes the Socialists. The future of Navarra will be decided in August.
