The good results of the PSOE in Spain as a whole and the remarkable success of the Socialists in Navarre mean recognition for María Chivite in the face of her likely investiture. The acting president has four weeks to, on the one hand, negotiate with Geroa Bai and Contigo/Zurekin a program of minimums and the composition of the Executive, and, on the other hand, agree with EH Bildu that she will abstain from the investiture . A socialist defeat could have complicated this second front and opened the door to an electoral repeat. The horizon, however, now appears clear for Navarre's socialists, so much so that, placed in a position of strength, they have not hesitated to tighten the rope with their main partner, Geroa Bai.
The acting president had postponed the second investiture until after Sunday's elections. The decision was intended not to affect his party in the face of the 23-J in the face of the certainty that the PP would use its need to agree on abstention with EH Bildu. After the May elections, Chivite left the Abertzale coalition aside and repeatedly emphasized that its partners are Geroa Bai, a Basque coalition in which the PNB participates, and Contigo/Zurekin, a brand that includes Podem, IU and Batzarre ; however, Bildu's consent is essential.
The nature of the May campaign, in which the PP wanted to make a mockery of the central government's agreements with Bildu in Congress, did not encourage the opening of a public negotiation with the Abertzale coalition over its abstention. It was clear that, in a context of agreements with Vox in Spain, the popular people would use it during the 23-J campaign, in a kind of "and you more".
The law that governs the self-government of Navarre allowed to wait, to let the Sanfermines and the campaign pass, and, finally, to see how things went during the day after the elections. And that is exactly what he has done. Until the situation is clarified in Madrid, the context is favorable for the acting president. Pedro Sánchez has achieved good enough results for the whole of Spain to guarantee continuity at the head of the party and avoid a turn in his policy of pacts.
Navarre's socialists, on the other hand, have managed to prevail in a general election for the first time in 37 years, helped by the division of the right, and have added 9,000 more votes than four years ago. It is clear that agreeing with Bildu in the rural community on eminently social issues does not affect them. Navarre was one of the five autonomies that appeared in red on Sunday night. The image of Chivite after the count, exultant, was eloquent of the situation.
Chivite has until August 28 (three months after the May elections) to clear the two paths that will converge in his probable investiture; otherwise, elections will be repeated. Ferraz is open on via Navarra, and the acting president has resumed negotiations with what will, in principle, be her government partners: Geroa Bai and Contigo/Zurekin. This side of the negotiation is being more problematic than expected. The PSN wants more power than during the last mandate, while the Basque formation understands that the last legislature was already excessively generous with the socialists. The positions are far apart.
The socialists, however, will seek to the end the agreement with Geroa Bai and this week they have rejected a new and surprising offer from the UPN, after a very tough campaign against the PSOE. It would be difficult to explain that the understanding with Geroa Bai was broken. As for the other front, Bildu has announced that it will guarantee the investiture of Sánchez to block the way to PP and Vox. It does not seem that the position in Navarre should be so generous, although the Abertzale coalition will not pull the strings. Chivite's horizon has woken up cleanly after 23- J. Beyond the clouds that have timidly lifted Navarre due to tensions with Geroa Bai, it seems that only a radical change in the climate in Madrid can darken this horizon.
