At the beginning of the transition, some "unsettling" analyzes became popular - that's how their recipients described them - that circulated among the secret services, counterintelligence and important businessmen outside and inside Spain. The reports were even believed - because you have an idea - the polimilis (the popular name for the members of the politico-military ETA). Legend has it that the most "stabbing" analysis of all, which went like a hot knife through butter, was the one that claimed that Manuel Fraga Iribarne - yes, you read that right - would win the first democratic elections in 1977. Those of the Habla, pueblo, habla. Fraga would put the transition in his pocket. Like Albert Rivera, Pablo Casado or Alberto Núñez Feijóo in our time. Therefore - said the learned analyses-, it was necessary to get the amnesty of 1977 before the elections no matter what, because with Fraga there wouldn't be one. Undoubtedly, the "harrowing" analysis did not take the more temperate advisers by surprise, even if they were in the absolute minority. That Fraga would win was an unfounded presumption. But this has always been the case with many of the conspiracies in Madrid DF.
Well, in time, these people confirmed not only their mistake but that the reports had been a strategic move by Adolfo Suárez with which, giving Fraga additional fame, presenting him as the man who would be the elected, he managed to frighten many people who wanted the reforms to continue. Fear as currency in Spanish politics. "If Fraga wins, let's go back to what was before", was the slogan. Xabier Arzalluz explains it in Así fue, the memoirs of the real "godfather" of Basque nationalism, a truly multifaceted, intellectual character, nothing to do with his caricature. Suárez would end up waiting, as they know, until the last moment to jump into the arena and form his party: the victorious UCD. And, of course, that amnesty never happened before.
Who are Suárez and Fraga today? Who takes the votes of fear? And what is the most "harrowing" analysis of all? Without a doubt, the one who says that "amnesty will destroy the transition", when he recovers his spirit. As if amnesty or pardons were an endemic evil in Spain. It's not like that. Portugal, 1996: the Assembly approves amnesty for Lieutenant Colonel Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, hero of the Carnation Revolution of 1974, but sentenced in 1987 to eighteen years in prison for military subversion and leading between 1980 and 1984 the far-left terrorist group FP-25, which in addition to carrying out attacks killed eighteen people. Italy: Twenty-two amnesties have been granted since 1948, the last in 2005. The United Kingdom: A blanket amnesty was approved last week for crimes committed during the three-decade conflict with 3,500 dead And Germany: the Government releases prisoners every year between Christmas in the so-called Christmas amnesty. In December 2022 alone, 1,056 inmates were released. Bavaria is the only one of the sixteen German states that does not participate. In the last year of Angela Merkel there were 800. Look at the European cases, some involving blood crimes, nothing to do with the pro-independence portfolio. This is how it was and is (the amnesty) among our neighbors. And to contextualize it we didn't have to go to the Matignon agreements on New Caledonia in France in 1988 or for the umpteenth time in 1976 or 1977 in Spain, because amnesty exists in Europe.
Each country has its customs, histories and amnesties such as pardons are the order of the day. The statements of some leaders of the transition these days that promote the fear of amnesty are achieving the opposite effect: that the transition seems so distant and so old that due to their reactions an updating of those signs with the times is essential current precisely with the amnesty and a ratification in order to update the Constitution. Amnesty needs a base camp, a platform of allies and more Sherpas to crown the eight thousand. The amnesty must be, before anything else, a "historical commitment" and, therefore, with waivers so that everyone wins. If Carles Puigdemont believes in the total reunion, he cannot fail in his ascent in the stepping technique. Andoni Ortuzar, who climbs the mountain by helicopter as Arzalluz did, knows it. Amnesty has a slogan to crown Everest: "If Fraga wins, let's go back to what was before".
