If one goes to the psychologist to find out what profession suits him, or what his personality type is (controlling, dominant, helpful, curious, perfectionist, moralist...), he might ask him to draw on a piece of paper the first thing that cross his mind, or to ask him again and again what concepts he associates, for example, with the number five.
And the answers, depending on age and context, can be as varied as the five continents, the five senses, the youth novels of the “Five”, the musical group Los Cinco Latinos, the frontwoman of the “magnificent five” of Real Zaragoza, the five wolves of the lullaby... Or the five promises that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak solemnly made to the British to put their trust in him.
First promise, cut inflation in half; second, that the economy grows again; third, to lower the national debt; fourth, cut public health waiting lists; and fifth, to approve laws that prevent the arrival of asylum seekers in the pastera through the Manèga canal. He formulated them more than six months ago, and at the moment he cannot fulfill any of them, which is a serious problem when one has been in power for thirteen years, the voters are tired of the same party (in this case, the Conservatives) and the widespread perception is that the country is dysfunctional and in freefall.
Sunak, on the advice of the Bank of England, believed that inflation would drop sharply once energy prices normalized and Ukraine's war-torn supply chains resumed operations. It was the logical thing, but it hasn't been like that. The 8.2% index is the highest in the G-7, and mainly affects food and basic necessities, with no prospects of immediate relief. At the same time, interest rates have skyrocketed, and those who bought houses with variable mortgages have to pay thousands of euros more per year.
The national debt, meanwhile, is already more than one hundred percent of GDP, and has caused the markets to punish the United Kingdom and the cost of servicing it is at the level of that of Italy, and some months even exceeds it . The Treasury responded to the pandemic by printing money like nothing, taking advantage of low interest rates and ignoring the impact on inflation. Now they've gone up, and it's a problem.
Sunak guaranteed that before the next election the economy would grow again, but growth is, for the moment, stunted (0.1% in the last quarter) and the threat of recession persists. Among other things, if the British are asked if they are better off now than a year ago, or two, or three, or four, the vast majority will answer no, much worse. Few things hurt a government as much as a cost-of-living crisis, with prices rising more than wages and purchasing power falling. In the UK it is lower than in 2008.
The NHS, which in this country has gone from being a religion to a real cult, celebrated its 75th anniversary this week amid the deepest crisis in its history, with seven and a half million of people on waiting lists of up to four months for operations. Sunak promised to reduce them, but for now they have increased due to congestion caused by the pandemic and periodic strikes by nurses and doctors who are demanding higher pay and better working conditions.
Fund injections fall into a hole in a public medicine that is an immense bureaucracy, where much of the money remains in management. After three quarters of a century, it calls for a thorough restructuring, and speculates on a co-payment system, in which those who wish to access doctors more quickly, be received in person or enjoy a room own hospital pay an amount, as is done in some European countries. But the resistance to it ceasing to be free for all is enormous. And the lack of a strategy (and a budget) for the care of the elderly who are no longer able to fend for themselves is a real bombshell.
The prime minister's fifth promise, and the one he trusted the most, was to stop the arrival of pastoralists through legislation (and bilateral agreements with France). But his plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda has been rejected by the courts (although the Supreme Court will have the final say), the Lords have tabled several amendments to the bill, human rights organizations are mobilized, and no plane is expected to leave for Kigali before it is electorally too late. In addition, it is not lost on the voters that, in fact, the Government has opened the doors of "legal immigration" to 660,000 foreigners, a historical record, because they are essential to do the work that the natives do not want, pay the pensions and that the economy does not collapse.
Sunak wants to lull the Brits to sleep with a lullaby, but he can't. Think about the five broken promises. Or they change their number and go to the four and four horsemen of the Apocalypse that have prostrated the country: the financial collapse of 2008, austerity, the pandemic and Brexit.
