After making the prediction that the right-wing tsunami would swallow him up and open a new political cycle in Spain fail on 23-J, Pedro Sánchez is ready to try, once again, the most difficult. His specialty.
The intention of the leader of the PSOE is to obtain a new investiture as president of the Spanish government, and forge a parliamentary majority in the legislature, for which the position adopted by Together for Catalonia will be decisive. Rupturism and unilateralism, or pragmatism and permeability. "Together it has two souls", they emphasize.
But its leader, former president Carles Puigdemont, has been a fugitive from Spanish justice since the fleeting unilateral declaration of Catalan independence in 2017. And once the General Court of the EU has withdrawn his immunity from the European Parliament, the The Prosecutor's Office demands that the Supreme Court reactivate the arrest warrant against him. Sánchez's bet to win re-election is once again of maximum risk and extremely high political voltage.
Before 23-J, Sánchez rejected Junts' program of maxims: amnesty for all those accused of the process and a referendum on self-determination in Catalonia. And, after the appointment with the polls, the President of the Government, already in office, continues to dismiss these demands, despite the fact that Puigdemont's training may be indispensable for him to opt for a new investiture.
This was highlighted yesterday by the spokeswoman for the Government, the socialist Isabel Rodríguez, after the last Council of Ministers was held before the holidays. "If one thing has been demonstrated in these years of President Sánchez's Government, it is that in Catalonia, as in Spain as a whole, there is only one constitutional framework", he warned. "We are a constitutionalist party, and that means that any issue we address must be strictly within the constitutional framework", agreed the deputy general secretary of the PSOE, Minister María Jesús Montero.
The Socialists, moreover, are betting on looking to the future and turning the page on the 2017 process. "According to the expression of Catalan citizens, it seems clear that they liked this," the minister spokeswoman stressed. He thus referred to the electoral triumph of the PSC of Salvador Illa this Sunday in Lesurnes, in which it obtained more votes and seats in Congress than all the pro-independence parties combined. The PSOE urge Junts to reflect on the result of the elections in Catalonia.
Game by game, in any case, is Sánchez's strategic theme. And aware that Alberto NúñezFeijóo does not have enough support for his investiture, he shows no rush.
Step by step. A la Moncloa and Ferraz urge us to wait, for now, for the vote from outside to draw the definitive parliamentary map next Friday, as some seats could still be up for grabs. Afterwards, they foresee a long hiatus until the new Courts are constituted on August 17. And they agree that nothing will move, in the face of an eventual investiture of Sánchez, until that moment.
The Socialists are confident of retaining the presidency of the Congress, but they will have to negotiate the composition of the Bureau. And they warn that Junts, despite the fact that it obtained 7 deputies on 23-J, will want to form its own group in the Lower House. "The Board will have the last word", they say. The first negotiations will set the tone, and the disposition of the parties to reach agreements.
"To bring a negotiation to a successful conclusion we need to have discretion", alleged María Jesús Montero. And he knows very well what he is talking about, having managed to approve three consecutive general State budgets.
The game will be very complex, and it is assumed that it will take a long time. The deadlines could be delayed until after September 11, Catalonia Day.
The PSOE assume that the new parliamentary arithmetic is demonic. But there are also those in the Central Executive who see it as an opportunity. If this legislature served as a "landing strip" for ERC after the process, the next legislature could be an opportunity for Junts to land as well. "Hopefully", confides a minister.
