French unions yesterday organized the twelfth day of mobilization and strike against the pension reform. Participation was down, but this had a very relative importance because the country is awaiting the decision to be announced today Friday by the Constitutional Council on the legality of the reform and on the possibility of collecting signatures for a referendum.
There were demonstrations in major cities and the usual incidents of extremist elements clashing with riot police, most notably in Paris, but also in Lyon, Rennes and Nantes.
After twelve calls and being on the eve of a decisive arbitration by the highest constitutional instance of the Republic, it is normal that there was less motivation to support the protest. Nevertheless, tens of thousands of people took to the streets. In sectors such as education, the follow-up to the strike was very modest, of only 5% of the staff. Disruption was also minor in railways and public transport. On the contrary, the Paris scavengers started another strike.
The opinion of the Constitutional Council could appease spirits or exacerbate even more the serious political and social crisis that France has been experiencing for months.
This body of nine members, the so-called sages, is headed by former Socialist Prime Minister Laurent Fabius. Another member is former conservative premier Alain Juppé.
The Constitutional Council has several possibilities before it. It could fully validate the reform or reject it altogether claiming that the Constitution has been violated in the procedure that has been chosen to carry it out. The first option would raise the spirits of the street; the second would be a humiliating defeat for Macron, who would be further battered for the remainder of his term, which expires in the spring of 2027.
Another fundamental decision that will end up being more relevant has to do with the request of 252 parliamentarians to be authorized to collect signatures – 4.8 million are needed – to call a referendum within nine months. In this consultation, the people would be asked if it should be prohibited to place the legal retirement age beyond 62, the current limit (and not the 64 provided for in the reform). If it goes the route of the referendum, the two chambers will first have to pronounce. The reform would be frozen, without being applied, and the referendum would be held in July 2024, before the Olympic Games in Paris. It would be a nightmare scenario for Macron and his Government.
Whatever the Constitutional Council's final decision, Macron's political future looks complicated. There does not seem to be any other alternative than trying to reach a pact or a de facto coalition with the Republicans (LR, traditional right) to avoid four years of instability. There is already talk of a possible relief at the head of the Government to facilitate this maneuver. The prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, who has been in office for 11 months, could lose it. She is quite burnt. In France, his position is always a fuse, a scapegoat, which presidents use to overcome crises and push forward.
