Emmanuel Macron and his Government are winning the pulse of the unions and the protest on the streets, although the long-term political price may be high. The French Senate, with a conservative majority, gave the green light on Saturday, in a session that ended almost at midnight, to the controversial and unpopular reform of pensions, the most important project of the second term of the current tenant of the Elysee .
The reform, which envisages delaying the legal retirement age by two years, from 62 to 64, obtained 195 favorable votes and 112 against. This result was a relief for Macron and his team. It was a decisive step forward that anticipates, barring last-minute surprises, a likely approval of the reform by the National Assembly, this Thursday.
The legislative text will have to be analyzed and agreed upon this Wednesday at the joint joint commission meeting between the Senate and the National Assembly. Their task is to agree on a definitive version that harmonizes the differences between the two approved texts, which are minimal. This commission is made up of fourteen members, seven from each Chamber. Ten are known to be in favor of reform. The most logical thing, then, is for them to leave the final text ready so that it can be voted on in both chambers on Thursday.
There is no absolute certainty that there will be a majority in the Assembly. Some MPs in Macron's Renaissance party and allied groups are reluctant, but there will be a lot of pressure to tame their rebellion and get them to buck up. There is too much at stake.
There are also doubts about a sector of the Els Republicans group (LR, traditional right). It is enough for two thirds of them to vote in favor for the project to go ahead. In an article, yesterday, in Le Journal du Dimanche, the president of LR, Éric Ciotti, called on his people to support the initiative, as he considers it a necessity in terms of financial sustainability due to the demographic evolution and the aging of the population. "I will vote in favor of the pension reform because I am a Gaullist," he wrote. And Gaullistism, against all odds, has only one requirement, the best interest of the nation". Ciotti took the opportunity to lash out at Macron for his mishandling of this matter. Republicans are trying not to appear as the president's saviors because they want their party to maintain its own profile going forward.
The procedure in the Senate was faster than expected. The Government activated article 44.3 of the Constitution to shorten the procedure and force a single vote on the full text, instead of doing it by articles and amendments. With this strategy, the deadline was shortened by at least one day. The Executive does not rule out resorting to another exceptional instrument, article 49.3 of the Constitution, if things get complicated in the National Assembly. This would allow the reform to be approved by decree. They want to avoid it as much as not so as not to raise spirits even more, but they do not rule it out completely.
The vote in the Senate took place at the end of a new day of demonstrations across the country, the seventh since the year began. The participation was significantly lower, a sign of the fatigue of the protest and the resignation of the opposing sectors, who see that the parliamentary process is moving forward and the Government does not intend to give in on what is fundamental.
Despite everything, the unions remain combative. Another national protest and strikes have been called for Wednesday. "The party is not over," warned the general secretary of the French Democratic Confederation of Labor (CFDT), Laurent Berger, head of the union with the most members and historically the most moderate.
In the political sphere, the left and the extreme right, which are opposed to the reform, are pondering their strategy. The president of the far-right Reagrupament Nacional (RN, ex National Front), Jordan Bardella, spoke yesterday of "discussions" in the National Assembly about the possibility of presenting a joint motion of censure in the event that the Government resorts to the 'article 49.3, a decision that would seem typical of an authoritarian system. RN has so far adopted a wait-and-see attitude, knowing that social unrest is growing and that, in the long run, this will feed its electoral targets. Bardella showed solidarity with the demonstrations, although his party does not encourage his followers to take to the streets.
