The PSOE has held regional power and most of the municipal power in La Rioja for the last four years, but the possibility that it can continue the electoral turnaround that it led in 2019 hangs by a thread. The main factor threatening the re-election of the socialist president Concha Andreu is easy to understand: the PP will capitalize on the parliamentary disappearance of Ciudadanos. The popular candidate, Gonzalo Capellán, could add, according to the surveys, the four parliamentarians of the orange formation and be on the edge of the absolute majority, with around 15-16 seats out of 33. From there, a range of possibilities opens up. that will decide the balance based on whether Vox, Podemos and the regionalist formation Rioja Party, which competes with the Empty Spain, overcome the 5% barrier and achieve representation.
Four years ago the socialists experienced a perfect storm. With Andreu as a candidate, the PSOE won 15 seats in the regional parliament, which added to the two won by Podemos, made it possible to square the majority: 17 out of 33. The PP stayed with 12 seats and Ciudadanos won 4. The Socialists put an end to 24 years of PP governments. Something similar happened in Logroño and Pablo Hermoso de Mendoza became mayor, taking over from the popular Cuca Gamarra, who after eight years as mayor did not run again and headed for Madrid. A narrow margin of votes led to the overturn. On the 28th the same thing can happen, although in the opposite direction.
La Rioja is the autonomous community with the smallest population in Spain, 320,000 inhabitants; practically half reside in Logroño. It is also one of the communities with the lowest unemployment rate, below 9%, and its per capita income is above the national average. It is a prosperous territory. And it is the quiet community par excellence. Although the legislature has been particularly moved in the Palacete, seat of the La Rioja Government.
The progressive Executive of President Concha Andreu has been a coming and going of directors and intermediate positions. After a little more than a year in office, she removed four of her nine advisers. In the following two years another two would fall. She has had three spokespersons in four years. During the first year of the legislature, in addition, there was a total fracture in her legislature partner, Podemos-IU, which expelled the counselor Raquel Romero, although she has had the confidence of the president. And despite all those ups and downs in the Palacete, she has managed to maintain positive ratings, probably because she has known how to remain faithful to the program of defense of the public and the social policies that brought her to power.
Andreu successfully passed the great exam of the first half of the legislature: the management of the pandemic, a section in which the majority of citizens approved his management. His government has carried out the four budgets of the mandate and has been able to maintain the industrial pulse of the community: above 20% of GDP, clearly higher than the national average. Andreu has squeezed the harmony of him with the Government of Pedro Sánchez, presumption of investments in the community and with half a dozen visits from the president.
It has also been able to bring privatized health services to the public sphere, although the lack of health professionals hinders health in La Rioja and fattens waiting lists. La Rioja has other problems: the demographic crisis, problems in the agri-food sector, communications or competitive possibilities compared to the surrounding communities.
The polls place the PP slightly above the PSOE, both in the regional elections and in regards to the Logroño city council. The transfer of the vote from Ciudadanos to the PP is total. The popular ones, however, would not achieve an absolute majority, and the key will probably lie beyond the two big parties in the community.
Three candidacies are around 5% of the votes, the barrier that must be overcome to access the Rioja legislature: Vox, Podemos and the Riojano-España Vaciada Party. A fourth candidacy, the split of the PP baptized as Por La Rioja, would be below, although it can scratch votes from the popular ones.
There is the added circumstance that the party that overcomes the 5% barrier will almost certainly enter with two seats. If the PP is the first force and Vox overcomes that electoral obstacle of 5%, Capellán will have a good chance of being president. Another thing will be how a popular leader who boasts a centrist profile will manage that equation from June. The entry of Podemos above that 5% barrier, on the other hand, would give wings to Concha Andreu, who would, however, need to get closer to her results of four years ago. Very few votes will decide the PSOE-PP duel for being the first force, and even fewer ballots will determine which forces exceed the electoral threshold.
