The acceptable performance of the stock market – although the Ibex chain has been down for six weeks, it has risen by 14% in twelve months –, the search for capital now that financing is complicated by rising interest rates and the desire to give new impetus to family businesses or owned by investment funds have reactivated the projects of going public. At the moment they are only plans with an eye on 2024, but they already represent at least one step forward after two years of drought of stock market premieres.
"We haven't seen the interest in recent months for a long time," says Javier Fernández-Galiano, Director of Financial Advisory at Deloitte, in an assessment of this trend. "In the pipeline there are family and private equity companies, and from practically all sectors of the economy", he indicates. According to him, "there are several IPO projects being prepared", although "most of them still have several months to debut".
Of the names that sound, some arouse great anticipation, such as the beauty and fashion group Puig, with brands such as Carolina Herrera, Paco Rabanne or Jean Paul Gaultier, which is nevertheless considering the most long-term decision. "The stock market is just one of the options for the future that we value", stated a few days ago its executive president, Marc Puig, in an interview with La Vanguardia. Investment banking sources place the value of an eventual public offer for sale (OPV) between 8,000 and 10,000 million euros.
Aside from Puig, dozens of investment banks and law firms are in the midst of IPO plans. Bergé has hired Lazard for a possible placement of part of its automotive subsidiary Astara, valued at 2 billion, while tourism platform Hotelbeds, owned by funds Cinven and CPPIB, is working with Morgan Stanley and Evercore in the search of several options.
There are other cases, such as that of the US fund Blackstone, which has met with investment banks to probe a possible OPV of the Cirsa gambling group, bought in 2018 from Manuel Lao. The Volotea airline is being advised by Morgan Stanley and Barclays to assess and calibrate its stock market takeoff.
From KPMG they note an increase in the number of clients interested in the option of going public. "Both the volatility indices, which have been low and stable for months, as well as the main stock market indices, which have experienced increases since the beginning of the year, suggest a much more favorable environment for new issuers than there has been in a long time of time", says Noelle Cajigas, partner responsible for KPMG deals in Spain.
Nevertheless, Cajigas appeals to caution. Advisors note the successful cases of IPOs in other markets, but also the opposite: sometimes the stock market performance has not been as expected, which "demotivates" investors. "Not all sectors have the same opportunity to be well received", he adds.
Salvatore Branca, head of equity at BNP Paribas in Iberia, agrees that "in the short term there will be an increase in IPOs". He refers to two causes. The first: "Never in the last two decades have there been so few starts of quotations" as in the last two years. "Now we will begin to see, among others, the reactivation of operations that do not respond to a sudden need for capital, but have been prepared for many months and it was simply expected that market conditions would be more favorable", he points out . The second cause is “greater certainty and macro stability”.
This year the drought of IPOs has become evident, not only because of the lack of premieres, but also because the only company that debuted last year, Opdenergy, has been the subject of a takeover bid by the Antin funds that will end up taking it off the market. The last truly relevant IPO in recent years was that of Acciona Energía in 2021.
Projects to be listed are not without uncertainty or last-minute surprises, and a good example is Cosentino, which was preparing its IPO at the beginning of the year, suspended when several rulings on silicosis were made public. "There is no urgency or need", they now say from the company when they are asked about this question. Instead, there are cases of companies that could move forward with their listing projects, such as the Basque aviation engine maker ITP, owned by the Bain fund and invested in by Indra. The good timing of the defense business could encourage it to activate its IPO at the end of 2024.
Can the new tensions in the Middle East derail the plans? "It is essential to be alert and not lose sight of the risk of a regional escalation, but if the conflict is contained to the current extent, the capital markets should continue to function normally", says Branca from BNP Paribas.
From Deloitte, when Fernández-Galiano is asked about the risks, he talks about the aggravation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in the price of oil that causes an increase in inflation.
