The decline in prices has lasted a sigh and keeps the fear in the body. The CPI is back on the rise this July and climbs four tenths, up to 2.3%, according to the data advanced yesterday by the INE. The two consecutive downward months are now a thing of the past due to the rise in fuel prices, tourist packages and sales in clothing and footwear that this year have been more modest than in 2022. The only joy comes from the light and the gas, they go down.
The worrying figure is core inflation. The statistic without energy or fresh food increases by three tenths, to 6.2%. Contagion across the product range is proving difficult to mitigate. "In terms of the general rate, we are in line with the objective of the European Central Bank (ECB) - the harmonized inflation is 2.1% - but the underlying rate is more problematic, it remains high", says Josep Soler, president of the advisory board of the Institute of Financial Studies. "It will continue to be a stone in the shoe for the ECB", agrees Diego Morín, analyst at IG.
The tension does not disappear from the prices, from the pockets. When one obstacle is raised, another appears: war in Ukraine, food on the rise, energy at unprecedented levels, drought... "Inflation may continue to rise this summer due to the pressures of tourism. It concentrates the activity and the employment that is generated, the employee is paid more. When salaries are under pressure, this is transferred to prices", comments Soler. Precisely, the INE mentions the price of tourist packages, trips with various services included, as one of the drivers of the increase. "The most expensive vacation in history", a phrase that has been repeated in recent months.
Fuels also harm. "I do not rule out that we will again have inflationary pressures in the euro zone due to the rise we are seeing in the prices of the Brent barrel and of raw materials due to the problems with exports and blockades in Russia", Morín suggests. The coup de grace can be the drought and extreme temperatures, which are already noticeable with the lack of cereals, fruits such as watermelon and melon and skyrocketing oil prices.
Prices reached the peak of the inflationary crisis, 10.8%, just a year ago. "The effectiveness of the measures adopted has made it possible to reduce inflation by 8.5 points in the last year", was highlighted in the Ministry of Economic Affairs with reference to the reductions in VAT, the fuel subsidy and the free train "Inflation remains close to 2%, which favors the competitiveness of companies and the gain in purchasing power of wages", it was added.
The loss of control in prices that the Eurozone has experienced in the last year has led the ECB to new rate increases, up to 4.25%. "The rates are high for Spain, excessive. They are more suitable for other countries with other inflations", says Soler. "It is possible that we have two more climbs left in Europe", believe IG.
On August 11, the INE will detail what is going up and the final data.
