The scene happened almost a year ago, during the party that La Vanguardia organizes on Sant Jordi's eve with the book sector. Pablo Iglesiases made his way through the crowd of chaperones who chatted animatedly until he reached the group formed around Yolanda Díaz. Both of them melted into a long and trusting hug, the kind that Podemos likes so much. When they parted, she, without ceasing to smile and raising her index finger, said to him: "You've been very lazy lately." They were the first words spoken in many months. Relations between the former vice-president of the Government and his successor are still tense, although both held a conversation a few weeks ago to try to re-direct a situation that threatens to collapse the left.
What is happening at Unides Podemos? Will they manage to reach an agreement for a candidacy united to the generals headed by Díaz? Or will they have bled out on the way? The differences between the future candidate and the lilacs are not programmatic, but that does not mean they are not relevant. You could say that they are organic, strategy and style discrepancies. Let's go to pams:
First, the organic shock. It is the most obvious. In Podemos, the feeling is spreading that they are being cornered in the lists, that Díaz intends to make them "in the offices" with the rest of the confluences and dilute what was the main driving force behind the formation. Podemos pressed first to agree on the candidacies of the generals before the 28th of May, the date of the municipal elections. After finding that this would be impossible, they demanded a commitment to run as a coalition (which maintains the organic independence of each party) and are now calling for open primaries. Díaz already told Rne this week that there would be primaries in the new organization, Sumar, and he reminded Iglesias that he appointed her "by word of mouth" as a dolphin. It is possible that Díaz insists on his willingness to hold primaries to encourage Podemos to go to the April 2 event in Madrid, where he will officially present his candidacy. A stand-off by Podemos would be a bad omen, even though the rest of the confluences have been quick to confirm their attendance after the impulse of the vice-president's speech during the motion of censure of Ramón Tamames.
The organic fight can be put on track before 28-M, but it can't be fully resolved until after. Among other things, because in this spring's municipal and regional elections, Podemos and some of its possible partners in Sumar, such as Más País or Compromís, will be electoral competitors, as in the Valencian Community or Madrid. Díaz is closer to those forces than to Podemos, but he will try not to step on their lice eye in the campaign.
Second, strategic disagreements. Perhaps the key is in the phrase that Iglesias exclaimed at the Podemos assembly in October 2014: "Heaven is not taken for consensus, it is taken for assault". The ex-leader of the lilacs is aware that the moment is different. In 2015, it won 69 deputies (27 of which belonged to its territorial allies) and more than 20% of the votes. It seemed possible to unseat the PSOE with a strategy of "challenge" that presented the socialists as part of the "caste", of an outdated system.
For Iglesias, the PSOE can only be won by marking distances. The Podemites believe that Pedro Sánchez uses the ticket image with Yolanda Díaz because it interests him, but as long as he keeps his partners at bay. Maybe Díaz simply wants to be the crutch of the socialists? No, but their methods are different.
For the leader of Sumar, it is about seducing the PSOE voter by addressing society as a whole. The example was his speech on the motion of censure: he had praise for his colleagues from Podemos and for the socialists. Even for Nadia Calviño, with whom she has had strong ideological clashes within the Government. Following this strategy, Díaz is pursuing something similar to what Més Madrid achieved with Mónica García, who unseated the PSOE in this community. It is not within his reach in the general elections in December, but he can sow for later, for when Sánchez decides to retire and the PSOE has to look for a new leader.
And third, the differences in style. Form is almost as important as substance in reaching voters. Díaz repeated this week a phrase that Iglesias uttered in 2019: "It is not easy to add what is different, it is not easy to bring together people who come from different political traditions, but if we aspire to change our country, if we agree on a 90 % of the program, we must rise to the challenge and our obligation is to walk together". The same words, spoken in a different tone. The vice-president eschews the image of a sullen, dull and sad left, which only feels comfortable in its corner. In their environment, they believe that Podemos is closing in, far from that lilac poster for its first elections that read "when was the last time you voted with enthusiasm?". A language of protest, but also of hope. Although now, the time is different.
The hostilities will continue because when a party is expanding it is easier to reconcile differences than when it is in retreat. In the general elections, not only the first position between the PSOE and the PP is at stake, but also the third, between Unides Podem and Vox. The third will have the key to the pacts. It is a very well-paid small jump: the far-right went from 10 to 15% of the vote and with the electoral law it went from 24 to 52 seats. But the left tends to demobilize more if its leaders fight. Iglesias likes to quote Mario Benedetti: "To win the future you have to fight the present". But the fact is that some fights have no future.
PS: Will Iglesias and Díaz see each other this year for Sant Jordi?
