The great package operation that is Black Friday, with millions of shipments in just two weeks, begins to be prepared months before, in July. Everything is now ready to tackle one of the great shopping campaigns of the year, which this time is celebrated on November 25 and eats up more and more ground at Christmas. And this edition comes as a surprise after two years of soaring growth: there will be fewer shipments and aggressive offers, the logistics and trade sectors coincide. The economic situation is not forgiving and the sum of private spending on the decline together with the increase in costs in companies makes us foresee a decaffeinated Black Friday compared to previous editions.
The president of the Logistics and Transport Business Organization UNO, Francisco Aranda, puts the estimated decrease in shipments for this year at 5.3% compared to 2021. “Specifically, we anticipate that during this period something more than 100 million shipments in Spain, a more moderate figure than that of last year (when a total of 106 million were managed), due to the economic problems that our country has been facing in recent months", Aranda recently pointed out at the conference E -commerce: logistics keys in peak demand.
Amazon, the great thermometer of electronic commerce around the world, also anticipates a drop in business expected for the fourth quarter, just when its activity should reach the highest levels precisely because of Black Friday and Christmas. In its latest earnings call last week, it lowered the sales target from $155 billion to between $140 billion and $148 billion due to slowing consumption, which has earned it punishment from the markets.
"This Black Friday campaign will be a little weaker than the 2021 campaign," confirms Juan Pablo Lázaro, executive president of Sending. The company has been crossing data on supply and demand and on the volume of orders throughout Europe, including in Spain, for some time. Thus, it calculates a drop of 7% in activity compared to a year ago. The business-to-consumer segment is down 20% overall, Lázaro continues. “In our case, we foresee a 25% more turnover compared to the current figures; yes, the increase will be less than other editions, ”he notes.
The discounts, meanwhile, will also be more moderate than years ago. There will be offers, as always, but not aggressive discounts, says Rafael Torres, president of the Spanish Confederation of Commerce. “The merchants are already very far to the limit –he adds–; In addition, given the fall in the purchasing power of consumers and the foreseeable decrease in sales, businesses have not acquired large stocks that they have to sell”. Therefore, he considers that there will be no takedown discounts.
From the Modacc business association, which brings together the textile companies of Catalonia, they coincide and anticipate a sales campaign with moderate discounts. “The aggressive pricing model has already reached its peak; the margins of the companies are very tight due to the large increase in costs”, considers David Dimas, president of Modacc and director of the Simorra firm. In the case of textiles, Dimas adds another factor that predicts a lower use of offers this Black Friday: its high relocation makes it a sector that is very sensitive to the exchange rate. One more element that, in the current context, harms the margins of businesses and the possibility of making significant discounts.
Does this mean that the big day of the discounts will not work? "I do not think so; there will be less activity than last year, but with inflation and households with less ability to spend, we expect consumers to bring forward their Christmas purchases to Black Friday with more intensity”, underlines Lázaro, from Sending. As small as they are, households will take advantage of the offers. To the detriment, yes, of the last month of the year.
