Spanish classrooms remain empty. In the last decade, there are 450,000 fewer students in primary and secondary school (compulsory stage) and forecasts indicate that in 2037 there will be more than one million. This is what the analysis points out "Schools are running out of children: an opportunity to transform the educational system" (EsadeEcPol) carried out by researchers Lucas Gortazar and Jorge Galindo. The investigation analyzes the situation and proposes proposals to, despite the decline, be able to work for a “more efficient and fair” school. The report proposes maintaining educational investment and allocating the budget surplus left over by the population decline to improve student-teacher ratios, extend the time children spend in school facilities, and improve teaching policies and working conditions. the teachers.
Since the milestone in educational demographics of reaching 8 million students (INE) was achieved in 2013, the situation has been declining. And of the 450,000 fewer students currently, forecasts suggest that it will exceed one million in 2037. And the surveys do not predict a change in trend as long as the fertility rate does not exceed the figure of two children per woman. “The demographic reality in the West is that no country that has gone beyond two children has overcome this barrier again,” the report notes. Consequently, it seems inevitable that the educational system will go from having to absorb 7.5 million to less than 6.5 million students.
But not all school stages will lose the same, nor will all territories in the same way. Secondary school will lose 25% of potential students in 2037: from almost 2.1 million today to 1.6 in 2037, while primary school will be below 2.4 million in 2032, far from three million. 2017. By territory, Zamora, León, Palencia and Jaén will lose more than a third of the volume of children under 16 that they had in 2013; others will lose less than 10% (Madrid and Barcelona) and some will even gain (Almería and the Balearic Islands).
The study points out that if, as seems likely, public investment does not decrease and remains at current levels, spending per student will grow "substantially." And the authors wonder how to invest this surplus of resources as a result of the birth deficit. to achieve a more efficient school. Reduce the student-teacher ratio and the size of those most pressured classrooms, extend school time and school reinforcement to advance "more effectively to greater equality of opportunities", improve working conditions of teachers as well as applying more efficient policies against school segregation and continuing to expand early childhood education and FP are some of the measures that Gortazar and Galindo propose.
For the authors, we are faced with “the great opportunity” to improve financing in schools in the next decade. "The decision is not between closing or not closing schools, but between closing schools and lines now and doing it well or closing them in 10 years and doing it badly," they point out. In this way, they propose a reform that implements sufficient compensation mechanisms, for example, with free transportation and dining plans for students who have to travel more, in schools and lines where they have become too small. And once the restructuring begins it will be "possible to redirect surpluses where they can produce a fairer and more productive impact."
