Yugoslav basketball. At the last second, the vote from abroad goes through the hoop and grants one more deputy to the Popular Party to the detriment of the PSOE in the Community of Madrid. Alberto Núñez Feijóo still has very little chance of being sworn in as president of the government, but the expectations of Pedro Sánchez are complicated, who could now need the affirmative vote of Junts per Catalunya for all purposes, if the Canary Coalition is not previously convinced.
The Popular Party goes from 136 to 137 seats and the PSOE loses one seat in Congress: from 122 to 121. The PP-Vox alliance has 170 deputies, which become 171 with the Unión del Pueblo Navarro. They are five short of reaching an absolute majority, and the Basque Nationalist Party has already announced that it is not available. Those 171 deputies from the Manfred Weber bloc are tied with the 171 seats that the PSOE could group with Sumar, ERC, Bildu, PNV and BNG and that we could call the Olaf Scholz bloc. The resolution of the tie remains in the hands of the Canary Islands Coalition (one seat) and Junts per Catalunya (seven deputies), with variables that we will explain a little later.
First, it is worth emphasizing the general framework, since very convoluted days are ahead that can make us forget that in Spain a very important episode of the struggle for positions that is taking place in the European Union with a view to 2024, the year of renewal of the European Commission and its presidency. The Bavarian conservative Manfred Weber is the president of the European People's Party and the main promoter of a policy of rapprochement with the far-right formations that allow themselves to be loved. Alberto Núñez Feijóo is a participant in that policy. The German Christian Democrats of the CDU are not entirely convinced, since they are afraid of such a game.
The EPP leadership only puts two conditions on the ultras: that they do not attack the European Union head-on and that they remain faithful to the Atlantic Alliance in the face of the war in Ukraine. Hermanos de Italia (Giorgia Meloni) and Vox (Santiago Abascal) dilate the pupils of Weber, who dreams of an enlarged conservative block that would agree with the liberals (led by Emmanuel Macron) and corner the Social Democrats in the negotiation of the future Commission. This scheme could leave the current German federal government isolated, headed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, currently the main point of support for the Spanish left in Europe.
Refreshed the general framework, we return to the tie at 171 between the two blocks, after the recount of the CERA vote that will become official tomorrow Monday. If the only deputy of the Canary Coalition leans towards Núñez Feijóo and turns his back on Sánchez, the socialist candidate is tied to the affirmative vote of Junts, which requires a very sealed pact. An approximation of the Canary Coalition to the socialists would return to Junts the option of abstention.
CC was resurrected on May 28. They have recovered the Government of the Canary Islands with the support of the Popular Party, but in that area of the Atlantic the trade winds comb and re-comb the pacts with great grace and a sense of opportunity. The election of the president and the Bureau of the Congress will be exciting on August 17th. First test, in two weeks.
The vote of the people of Madrid abroad changes the arithmetic and also the dynamics of the coming weeks and months. It speeds it up and can drive it crazy.
In the absence of official data for Monday, the CERA vote presents interesting paradoxes: residents abroad lean to the left in almost all provinces, with the exception of Madrid, Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Palencia, La Rioja, Soria , Malaga and Cadiz. The vote of the people of Madrid abroad is a unique case. The PP ballots double those of the PSOE and they win a seat. In the rest of the country nothing changes. Madrid's political phenomenology is very intense. The Government of the Community of Madrid has a specific secretariat to attend to Madrid residents living abroad.
Catalonia and the Basque Country decided the result of July 23 and Madrid corrected it in extremis. This is the painting. Catalan businessmen are beginning to show themselves in favor of an agreement between Sánchez and Junts (see information on the matter in the Economy section) and the PP, pay attention, send friendly messages to Junts. Morse signals. This summer a lot of Catalan will be spoken in private.
In fits and starts we may be entering a new political phase. Having become the new Count of Monte Cristo, Carles Puigdemont issues a statement from Brussels in which he lists the harassment he has been subjected to over the years by the state apparatus and rejects pressure. He demands moral reparation before returning to the cold game of politics. That is the first step for him. He wants a new narrative.
Without the help of Alexandre Dumas, Spain is going to repeat elections.
