It's been just over a year since the tsunami that caused the emergence of ChatGPT and all the apocalyptic predictions that accompanied it. They have all turned out to be wrong.
Why have the forecasts not materialized and the world is fundamentally what it was?
Here you have two answers and a model.
The first answer focuses on the innovation and adoption process. We often extrapolate the speed at which a technology has been developed to its adoption. Nothing could be further from reality, adoption is not going at the speed of technology but at human speed.
The process of adopting a technology is a social process and therefore depends on the depth of the changes it implies; If they are organizational changes, it will need more push and it will take longer. It also depends on the competitive intensity of the organization that must adopt it, its internal capabilities to absorb said innovation, the cultural resistance to change... In leading organizations we see massive adoption, while in the vast majority their use is still individual.
The second answer refers to the speed of appearance of new innovations. Humans tend to make linear extrapolations. If in five years we have gone from 0 to 100, in ten we will be at 200 and in 20 at 400. Obviously, the speed of new discoveries is not linear at all. It is a process in extension, like an oil stain, but rarely in depth.
When will the new discovery appear that will create the new oil slick? It may be soon or it may take decades. Advances occur in leaps, followed by periods of incremental improvement with decreasing contributions.
So what will be the impact of generative artificial intelligence? To answer that question we need an analysis model.
The effects of any technology, but artificial intelligence in particular, are twofold. First, increase our capabilities, and second, automate them.
The first case, that of increasing, is what we are experiencing. Tools make us better and more productive. If this increase in productivity can be translated into an increase in business, then we will earn more. If, on the other hand, the market is what it is and it is not going to grow because we are more productive and better, then there will be more people in the same proportion as productivity increases.
