Absorbed by the five days of April, we have almost missed the turn of Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission and candidate to repeat the position. In the course of a first debate in Brussels between the Spitzenkandidat (official candidates of the large European formations for the presidency of the Commission), Von der Leyen has opened the door to a pact with the Brothers of Italy and Vox for the governance of the European institutions during the next mandate.
That was not the position of the president of the Commission a few months ago, when she seemed very focused on taking care of the relationship with social democrats and liberals, forces that were decisive for her election in July 2019, after a very hectic negotiating process. The official EPP candidate was the Bavarian Manfred Weber, who was vetoed by Emmanuel Macron and Pedro Sánchez, on behalf of liberals and social democrats. Angela Merkel, still Germany's federal chancellor, did not lift a finger to defend Weber, who belongs to the Bavarian CSU coalition, the most right-wing faction of German conservatism. The name of Von der Leyen, German Minister of Defense and member of the Christian Democrat CDU, then emerged.
Despondent, Weber entrenched himself in the presidency of the EPP, cultivating a special hatred against Macron and Sánchez. Over the past year, Weber has encouraged the alliance of traditional conservatives with far-right forces, with the only condition that they be loyal to NATO and unequivocally defend Ukraine in the war with Russia. The pilot plan began in Italy with the support of the declining Berlusconism of Giorgia Meloni, pragmatic by day, very tolerant of neo-fascism by night. Then Sweden and Finland came and Spain had to close the circle with a possible PP-Vox coalition government that could not be in July 2023 because that is what the Spanish decided. The pro-European Von der Leyen never spared gestures of support and gratitude to Sánchez, a circumstance that greatly angered the Spanish PP.
What mystery lies in this week's tactical turn? Von der Leyen wants to be re-elected and knows that she does not have the unanimous support of the EPP, since Weber's shadow is long. She also knows that Macron might have other plans this time. The French president wants to lead the strategic rethinking of the European Union, with Germany in low times, and could propose an independent figure to preside over the Commission. There has been talk about Christine Lagarde (ECB), Kristalina Georgieva (IMF) and the eternal Mario Draghi.
Aware of the risks his candidacy runs, Von der Leyen has been courting Meloni for weeks, who in turn maintains an excellent relationship with Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox. A very favorable situation is being generated for the Italian prime minister. Von der Leyen now needs her, and if the chosen one were Draghi, she would celebrate it as a great triumph for Italy.
These notes serve to see more clearly the damage that Sánchez has been about to commit during the five days of April. He has sent a signal of weakness to the European power centers, he has distanced himself from the Great Game of Brussels, he has given space to Macron, and he has stimulated the ambition of Meloni, who has never stopped having his sights set on Spain.
Sánchez may have been cunning, but he was not Machiavellian.
