As analysts have stressed, the Biden Administration's reaction to the situation in Russia has been to interpret a piece of advice from Napoleon Bonaparte: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." A policy that conforms to the usual recipe of the president of the United States to focus on his allies and partners.
In the hours that followed the uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his mercenaries in Rostov-on-Don, Biden contacted leaders of other countries and the White House and the State Department held talks with the G-7 countries, India and Australia. .
But until then, the US government kept silent about the threat that loomed over Russia, of which its information services became aware in mid-June. American spies picked up that Prigozhin was planning an armed action against the Russian Defense Ministry establishment.
On Wednesday they notified the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department and even Congress. American information agencies knew that Prigozhin was planning something and worked to analyze the information obtained.
The disclosure of this information on Saturday by various media outlets shows that the United States was aware of the imminence of events, similar to how, since the end of 2021, they correctly warned that Putin was preparing to order the invasion of Ukraine, a “special operation” that was executed in February 2022.
The spies had enough data to communicate to the highest spheres of power in the United States that something was going to happen and that they should be prepared for what was coming.
However, unlike that time when the information was declassified to try to contain the Kremlin, this time Washington chose not to spread the plans of the head of the mercenaries.
The intelligence services made this decision because, if they anticipated details, Putin could have accused them of orchestrating a coup. Inspired by Napoleon, they had no interest in helping the Russian president avoid a fracture in his support.
“This is a moving image and we haven't seen the last act yet,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview on Sunday. “What has happened is extraordinary. There are cracks in the facade of Putin's leadership building because this is a clear challenge to his authority,” he added. It will fall or it will not fall, that is the question.
Blinken maintained that a more complete picture of the situation would be available in the coming days, but anticipated that it is "a real distraction" for Russia, which offers Kyiv an opportunity for its "counteroffensive" on the ground.
David Petraeus, a retired general and former CIA director, testified yesterday that Prigozhin "lost his temper" when he was near Moscow and ordered the end of the rebellion. "He must be careful when he walks past an open window in Belarus," he noted.
The ex-soldier stressed that Putin, the tough one, fled Moscow out of fear. “The Russian government has been shaken and Putin has been shaken personally. This makes him more vulnerable than ever in his two decades in power. Who knows where this can go now."
