With the information emerging from the international media, the probability today that The trench battle that marks the moment favors the defense. Furthermore, the one who is now defending himself has a much larger population than the attacker, a controlled political situation, and is technologically advanced. A qualitative leap in the level of offensive military support from the US and the EU could make a difference. But in the West fatigue is growing and internal politics interfere with the war commitment.
Especially in the US, where Trump's position (which amounts to sacrificing Ukraine) is no longer extreme in the Republican Party. As a result of the debates over the appointment of a new president of the House of Representatives we will see how the party is deciding. In any case, Trump could be their presidential candidate and he could win. Biden will be a decent Democratic candidate, but he has the weakness of not being able to attack Trump for being too old. A younger Democratic candidate would be a strong candidate. If Trump were to win, Ukraine would be in a compromised situation. Without the US, Europe has the economic, but not political or military, capacity to defeat Russia. And even if we had it, it seems to me that we would lack the will.
I think we are heading towards a freezing and fortification of the front, more likely de facto than by an armistice. Then what?
A possible scenario is that Russia sees itself victorious and, with the necessary calm, prepares for new offensives. That will be as likely or more likely the weaker the Western commitment is perceived. The starting situation is not favorable to Ukraine: both NATO and the EU have stated that a full incorporation of Ukraine is not conceivable while a war situation lasts. Let us not deceive ourselves about what it means: that we are not absolutely committed and that it is in Russia's interest to maintain the war situation indefinitely.
We are at a crossroads. The West can accept that Ukraine does not recover its lost territory, but not that it is defeated. He is aware that a defeat would be a traumatic and destabilizing setback. To avoid this, we are not willing to give the absolute guarantee: immediate membership in NATO. That is, we accept that if Russia manages to take over Ukraine we will not wage a recovery war. Now, we will do everything possible to prevent that from happening. From the positions on the field we now go into defense mode.
Ukraine will find it difficult to accept such an approach. But there are factors that can work in your favor:
1) The first is tragic: the loss of life and damage to the economy must make the move towards a very low intensity war emotionally welcome to Ukrainians.
2) It will be necessary to establish a powerful, credible military cooperation framework that guarantees peace and tranquility in the rear. There is talk of a model similar to that of cooperation between the US and Israel.
3) Aid to the reconstruction of Ukraine must be very generous. It would have to include an ad hoc process of de facto integration into the EU, which does not exclude the possibility of ending in de jure integration before the peace treaty.
4) There will be no renunciation of principle and economic sanctions would have to be maintained. Someday there will be a peace treaty and that will be where the new international borders will be marked.
