Ron DeSantis' early withdrawal from the race has turned the Republican primary into a direct duel between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Or, rather, in a plebiscite that will test the support of the first former president charged with criminal charges in the history of the United States (up to 91 crimes in four different judicial processes). It is the scenario that both had been waiting for for months: Haley now stands as the only alternative to the absolute dominance of the controversial magnate over the party, and Trump, with the support of almost all those who have fallen in battle, focuses his attacks - in of ridicule, belittling and accusations of "betrayal" – in a single objective.
"Can you hear that noise?" asked the former governor of South Carolina in her largest campaign event to date, before barely a thousand people, on Sunday in Exeter (New Hampshire). "It's the sound of a two-man race." However, her victory comes at a high price in the betting houses: since 2016, no one in the Republican Party has stood up to the winning horse. And, although he lost at the polls against Joe Biden in 2020, many continue to believe without evidence that this was electoral fraud.
The first round, and perhaps the last, will not be long in coming: this Tuesday, Trump and Haley will challenge each other to a duel in New Hampshire, the second primary event in the Republican race, after the magnate's overwhelming victory – with 51% of votes. votes and 30 points behind his opponent – in the Iowa caucuses. Since that date, last Monday, three candidates have abandoned the electoral race due to lack of funds and support: the former governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, who has requested the vote to Haley, as well as businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor DeSantis, who support Trump.
In New Hampshire, only 22 of the total of 2,429 delegates will be distributed who will elect the Republican candidate for the White House in July, in Milwaukee (Wisconsin). But the result could be decisive: a resounding victory for Trump would leave Haley shaken and with little chance of staying in the battle for the nomination. In this state, less religious, rural, conservative and Trumpist than Iowa, the former US ambassador to the UN has better options, although she remains far behind the former president: the latest survey gives her 34% of the intention to vote. vote, compared to Trump's 52%, and it is expected that the majority of those who supported DeSantis (8%) will end up voting for the magnate.
In the New Hampshire primary, citizens registered as independents, who are 40%, can vote. While the Republican base is clearly aligned with Trump, Haley is banking on the support of these voters, as well as more moderate Republicans, to pull off the upset. With an intense campaign, he has earned the support of the governor, the popular Chris Sununu, but his options remain very limited.
Faced with a vote that could be decisive, the two candidates have intensified their attacks during the last week. Haley, who turned 52 on Saturday, presents herself as a bearer of "generational change" in a party dominated by the "chaos" and "distractions" of Trump, 77 years old. “The majority of Americans do not want to have to choose between two octogenarians running for the White House,” she said in a speech in Bretton Woods (New Hampshire), ensuring that the lucidity of the former president and Joe Biden are “in decline.”
He was responding to another viral speech, in which Trump repeatedly confused Haley with Nancy Pelosi, who was speaker of the House of Representatives during the assault on the Capitol. "Trump keeps saying that I impeded security on January 6, but he wasn't even near the Capitol!" He said: "We can't have a person whom we question if he is really fit for the pressures of the presidency."
For his part, Trump already sees himself as the winner and has taken out his style manual: as he did with Barack Obama, he has questioned the birthplace of Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, but born in Bamberg (South Carolina). . And he has hurled a series of racist taunts at her, laughing at her first name (Nimarata), and calling her “Nimbra” in a post on her social media site, Truth Social. “Haley lacks presidential credentials,” she said Friday in a campaign speech in Concord, the capital of New Hampshire, “so I probably won't choose her as my vice president.”
When the polls close tonight, around 8 p.m. (two in the morning in Spain), the die will be cast. If Haley achieves a solid second place, or the unexpected victory against Trump, she will keep her options alive in the following dates on the primary calendar: the Nevada caucuses, where the magnate is expected to sweep, and the South Carolina primaries, state of which she was governor. However, a disappointing result could spell the end of his election campaign and pave Trump's path to the Republican nomination.
