Throughout history, territory and population have decided the course of wars. The larger and more populated a country is, the more options it has to prevail over its enemies.
According to this rule, Ukraine should have given in long ago. Russia has a population almost four times larger and a territory almost 30 times that of Ukraine.
These proportions are also reflected in the armies of both countries. The Russian armed forces are made up of 1.3 million soldiers, including active soldiers, reserves and paramilitary forces. The Ukrainian ones are around half a million, three times less.
The conflict has become a long-lasting war of attrition. The front, which barely moves, is a meat grinder.
The latest Pentagon calculations, made this summer, speak of half a million casualties on both sides. The previous estimate, from last November, was 200,000.
Russia has now lost 300,000 men. Some 120,000 have died and nearly 180,000 have been injured.
Ukraine, for its part, has 200,000 casualties. The dead are around 70,000
That the number of military casualties has now more than doubled is largely due to the Battle of Bakhmut, the town that Ukraine lost in May after several months of intense fighting.
The decision to turn Bakhmut into a death camp illustrates the determination, many consider suicidal, that Ukrainians have to resist at any cost. The price, however, may soon become unbearable.
The outcome of this war will be decided, in large part, by the ability of both armies to make up for casualties and maintain their arsenals, and here the Russian armed forces seem to once again have the advantage.
The official number of inhabitants in Russia is 146 million, including the 2.5 million who live in the occupied Crimean peninsula. That of Ukrainians ranges between 37 and 42, and can only be estimated because the last census is from the year 2000.
Be that as it may, the demographic situation is critical in both countries. Both have been losing population since the beginning of the 1990s, and the situation has worsened even more since the war broke out.
Ukraine, for example, had almost 52 million inhabitants in 1993. That is, it has lost at least ten million since then.
Russia, for its part, has gone from 148.5 million in 1993 to 143.5, if we do not count the inhabitants of Crimea and listen to the United Nations.
The populations of both countries are aging. Fertility has plummeted. Last July, just 110,000 children were born in Russia, the lowest number since 1945.
The fertility of Ukrainian women has been reduced by almost half since the start of the war. It was 1.2 children per woman in 2021 and today it barely reaches 0.7, according to the latest estimate by Ella Libanova, from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
If the war drags on and the downward trend continues, Ukraine will have a population of 24 million within 15 years, half that of 1993.
The demographic decline is explained by the degradation of living conditions. Insecurity, stress, loss of housing and employment, poorer nutrition and difficulties in receiving health care worsen mortality.
Russia, for example, lost a million inhabitants at the hands of covid, and this year it has lost another 300,000 due, mainly, to the war.
The conflict has displaced millions of people, exiles and refugees, which further depress demographic data.
From Ukraine, for example, between five and eight million people have left. Some have returned and others are in Russia, but today there are still 4.1 million in the European Union. 80% are women and children.
As the war drags on, the roots of refugees in the host countries grow, making it difficult for them to return to Ukraine. Even when peace comes, it will be a country in ruins that will require a colossal reconstruction effort that will span decades.
Nearly a million inhabitants have left Russia, according to calculations by the Re:Russia platform. There was a first wave at the beginning of the war and a second in September 2022, when the Kremlin announced the mandatory recruitment of 300,000 young people.
Since 1922, in the midst of the Bolshevik revolution, there had not been such a large exodus. The majority of those who have left are young people with resources, those who have the most options to start a family.
The demographic crisis and the war of attrition make call-ups difficult. The Kremlin has increased the military age from 27 to 30. Military service is mandatory from the age of 18 and lasts one year. The possibilities of avoiding it due to illness, studies or family situation have been drastically reduced. The military bureaucracy has become more sophisticated so that no one is left out.
The Kremlin has announced that some 185,000 young people have joined the ranks so far this year and promises not to send them to the front against their will. To get them to agree to enter combat, he tempts them with contracts that double the salaries they could earn as civilians. In any case, if they fight, they will not return home until the war is over. This is what Putin has decided due to the lack of soldiers or, in other words, cannon fodder.
Ukraine has stopped the counteroffensive because, after Bakhmut, it cannot justify the casualties as before. President Zelensky needs to convince the population that the fight is important and the strategy is appropriate. Today, however, it does not have enough weapons to break through the Russian defenses, trenches and minefields that impede progress. These weapons, which include fighter jets and longer-range missiles, will still take several months to arrive.
The war will drag on as long as the two armies believe they can win more on the battlefield than at the negotiating table. And the bad thing for Russians and Ukrainians is that war and the sacrifices it demands, including the ultimate sacrifice of giving one's life, are well established in their DNA.
The Second World War caused seven million deaths in Ukraine, one sixth of the population. The Soviet army lost 8.8 million men, many were Ukrainians, as it was in Ukraine where some of the worst battles on the Russian front were fought.
Almost 80 years have passed and that disaster, which devastated the population of the Soviet Union, is repeating itself. The consequences for the future of Russia and Ukraine will be dire.
