The result of the 23-J elections will logically have a direct effect on the Valencian political ecosystem at a time when a Valencian legislature is beginning, led by the PP and Vox pact and by the need for the PSPV and of Compromís to avoid internal conflicts at the beginning of their journey through the desert. Whether Pedro Sánchez or Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the next president of the Spanish Government will inevitably condition the position of the next Valencian executive that Carlos Mazón will preside over with the Spanish Government. These are some keys to the next legislature.
Institutional relationship
One of the axes of opposition of Carlos Mazón to the Botànic was that of the inability of Ximo Puig, and of his executive, to achieve, after two legislatures, that the Spanish Government modified the regional financing. In addition, the criticism against the cutting of the Tajo-Segura transfer or the rickety investment policy in the province of Alicante have formed part of this opposition story. If Sánchez is president, Carlos Mazón will be able to continue claiming what was denounced against the Botànic, but if it is Feijóo, it will be necessary to see how the next Valencian president modulates these demands that, if not resolved, could take a toll on his executive.
In addition, achieving the collaboration of the Government is going to be key for Mazón to carry out projects such as investments by multinational companies such as Tesla or even recovering events such as the Copa del América for Valencia. Madrid's relationship with Valencia will be, in this sense, tense or collaborative depending on who ends up presiding over the Spanish Government.
PP and Vox pact
One of the keys to 23-J will be to verify the need for the PP to agree with Vox in order to reach the presidency of the Government of Spain. This possibility, real according to the polls, would give even more coverage to the pact reached in the Valencian Community between the right and the extreme right. It will also be necessary to observe the position in which the formation of Santiago Abascal remains: a bad result could strain the relations of this formation with the PP in the autonomies where pacts have already been established, such as in Valencia.
In a party as hierarchical as Vox, the relationship that this formation has with the national PP will be transferred in one way or another to the autonomies. In addition, the result of Abascal -a complete unknown due to Feijóo's call for the useful vote- will mark whether this formation is consolidated in the institutions and if his speech is translated into laws that affect all Spaniards.
PSPV future
The PSPV's journey through the desert is not going to be the same if Pedro Sánchez remains president of the Government than if he ends up in the stands of the opposition. In the first case, the Valencian socialists would have strong support to exercise their opposition to Carlos Mazón, also counting on the Government Delegation, now led by the socialist Pilar Bernabé. On the contrary, if Feijóo is president, the PSPV will add to its planned internal process the one that will open in the PSOE, a socialist crisis that will surely weaken, for a while, the capacity of the Valencian socialists to confront the institutions governed by the PP.
It will be difficult for Sánchez to hold on after the defeat and in this scenario the role of the barons could be key.
Compromís and Sumar's commitment
The Valencian scenario in these general elections has radically changed compared to 2019. With the disappearance of the Podem brand from electoral combat, Compromís has entrusted its presence in Congress and the Senate to its alliance with the Sumar movement of Yolanda Díaz. A good result would allow the Valencianistas to expand their presence in the national chambers, another thing is how that translates in terms of visibility.
Otherwise, the internal process planned since Àgueda Micó advanced his decision to leave the general secretary to be number one in Congress, could generate strong internal tension.
Likewise, the reconfiguration of the political space to the left of the PSOE will depend on the success or failure of Sumar, a not inconsiderable space that can bring together around half a million votes.
