Winter is approaching the great European plain, the great plain that barely finds mountains between Paris and Moscow, while Spain, further down the Pyrenees, enjoys a warm and spa-like autumn. The summer of San Miguel will soon catch up with the summer of San Martín, and that has psychological and political effects.
The Iberian exception can generate the false perception that the European plain works with the same thermostat. It is not like this. Although the temperatures are mild, psychologically it is already winter. Politically, they are already facing one of the most difficult winters in decades.
Things are getting very serious on the plain, while here we discuss the minute that the King and Queen had to wait inside the State Heritage Rolls-Royce Phantom, while the President of the Government arrived at Paseo de la Castellana. A president this year unwilling to be shouted “son of a bitch” by military relatives in a preferential zone for ten minutes, courteously waits for the monarchs next to the tribune of the Twelfth of October parade. Synchronization failed. Sánchez arrived 55 seconds late and wrote one of the day's headlines. Adverse narrative frame. Politics cannot be done defensively.
The story that Sánchez cannot go out on the street because society repudiates him is being orchestrated by the Popular Party, with the invaluable support of Vox, which brings Chechen troops to the siege. That strategy of attrition, perfectly embodied by the PP spokesperson in Congress, Cuca Gamarra, mentally grips the Socialists and yesterday provoked an angry reaction from the spokesperson Patxi López.
Any political crisis of a certain magnitude in Spain ends up being resolved on the street. This is what happened in 2004: the Atocha attacks and immediately subsequent events. This is how it happened again in 2011: the outbreak of 15-M in the midst of the economic crisis. In 2014: appearance of Podemos as a political reverberation of 15-M. In 2017: Catalan October. And in 2019: the protests in Barcelona after the ruling of the Supreme Court conditioned the result of the last general elections, with a strong stimulus for Vox.
The street and Sanchez. The issue is not minor and leads to a perhaps fundamental question: Can Spain be governed for a long period of time, having against, fiercely against, the massif of the race? Can you govern for more than four years with organic Madrid against you? Is it possible to govern Spain for more than one legislature against the massif of the race and organic Madrid, a two-year epidemic and a war on European soil that could cause another serious economic recession? This is the question. This is the issue for next May (municipal and regional elections in twelve communities). This is the question of December 2023, when the general elections will be held if we do not have surprises and the calendars are modified. Everything will depend on what happens this winter in the great plain that stretches from Paris to the Ural mountains.
This critical winter is going to have a key scenario: Germany. Germany is forced to redefine her place in the world. A Germany with altered streets would scare even Mrs. Cuca Gamarra.
