The slowdown in industrial activity observed in recent months has put the sector on alert. Both companies and analysts warn of signs of a slowdown in the second half, a slowdown that comes when industrial GDP has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
The slowdown in industrial activity in the United States, China or Germany, the lower domestic consumption in Spain, the rise in rates and the difficulties faced by part of the SMEs are behind this process, underlines Sebastià García, from Cecot. The employers view with concern the latest data from the EPA, which shows a destruction of more than 60,000 jobs in the industrial sector during the second quarter of 2023. Textiles, paper and the manufacture of metal products concentrate most of the loss of busy. "These are sectors with greater cost erosion and more inelastic," says García. And he draws attention to the complicated situation of small and medium-sized companies, with less capacity to transfer the increase in costs, both labor and energy. “Many now have to face the repayment of the ICO loans due to the covid, and they also do not have the capacity of the large ones to apply for Next Generation funds,” he adds.
The Spanish economy as a whole has already exceeded the pre-pandemic GDP, "but this is not the case of manufacturing", remarks Joan Ramon Rovira, head of the Cabinet of Economic Studies of the Chamber. Now, although industrial activity has not yet reached the levels of before the covid stoppage, its productivity (production per hour worked) has increased above the rest of the sectors. If the global activities have increased by 1%, the industry has done so by 2.8%, says Rovira. "This indicates - he continues - that the most competitive companies, the most exporters, have survived."
Regarding the destruction of employment that was seen in the EPA, María Jesús Fernández, a senior economist at Funcas, points out that the data, by itself, does not indicate a decline in the sector. “The previous trend was not negative and if we look at enrollment, we see that employment continues to grow,” she says. But it has lost strength. There is a context of weakening activity in Europe as a whole, with a loss of strength in the second quarter, "an indication that we may find a greater deterioration than expected in the second half of the year."
In Catalonia, with an industrial GDP of 22.4%, above the Spanish economy as a whole, the trend is similar. The general director of Industry of the Generalitat, Oriol Alcoba, values that registered unemployment in the sector has been reduced by more than 2,700 people between January and June of this year, while affiliation grows – close to 500,000 people work in the industry, while another 36,000 remain unemployed, 4.4% less than in June 2022–. But even so, it warns of the slowdown in growth. “There is some slowdown; a year ago we were growing at 2% year-on-year each month, and now we are growing at 1%”, he maintains. The international context weighs heavily, the economies of Germany, France or Italy suffer some stagnation or decrease slightly, and these three countries alone account for 63% of European industrial GDP. “If they go slower, we can suffer; a third of the Catalan industry is exported, and of this, a third goes to the three countries mentioned ”, he emphasizes.
A slower rate of growth could also affect wages, since the average salary in the industry is higher, considers Salvador Guillermo, from Foment del Treball. Precisely, the good employment data from the latest EPA, with a record number of job creation in the second quarter of 603,900 people, was marked by the service sector, specifically tourism, with lower wages.
