Vladimir Putin is the commander-in-chief of a powerful army, with more than a million soldiers, which today, however, is his Achilles heel. When he most needs a victory to reassert his power after the betrayal by the mercenary Prigozhin, Ukraine remains a source of bad news.
What was going to be a triumphal ride has turned into hell. The Pentagon estimates that the Russian military has suffered between 189,500 and 223,000 casualties in Ukraine. The dead in combat range between 35,500 and 43,000. Among them there are a dozen generals and hundreds of commanders.
The mobilization last September was not enough. Some 300,000 young people were called up. A similar number fled the country. The Kremlin needs more troops and has tightened the recruitment system. Serving in the military is mandatory and now harder to avoid. The Kremlin does not dare to make a massive appeal. He fears that the protests will intensify. That is why he has launched an advertising campaign. The claim, in addition to heroism, is a monthly salary of 204,000 rubles, about 2,100 euros, four times the average salary.
The Prigozhin mutiny, the accusations of corruption and inefficiency against the Defense Minister and the Chief of the General Staff, highlight the infighting in the hard core of Russian power and discourage the most patriotic from heeding the call-up.
The latest report by defense experts from the Royal United Service Institute (RUSI) in London highlights that the main weakness of the Russian infantry is low morale, which leads to poor unit cohesion.
The engineers, according to the RUSI, have done a good job of fortifying the defensive lines. The artillery has improved mobility and the electronic defense is capable of intercepting enemy communications and shooting down about 10,000 Ukrainian drones a month.
This good defense, however, is not enough to attack and can fall apart if the troop does not appreciate a clear purpose to fight and risk their lives.
The front is a meat grinder and Putin does not find the right leadership. He has changed the head of the army in Ukraine four times. Since January, this responsibility falls on General Valeri Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff. It had been a decade, however, since he had commanded any troops. His was the poor planning of the initial offensive on Kyiv and also one of the worst defeats Russia has suffered in the Ukraine. In a single day he lost a thousand elite soldiers at Vuhledar.
But Putin values him for his loyalty. No other general has been in charge of the General Staff for longer since the fall of the USSR.
The same loyalty and longevity is what keeps Defense Minister Shoigu in his post. He apparently is the great beneficiary of Prigozhin's surrender. The Kremlin has ordered Wagner's 25,000 mercenaries to join the army, lay down their weapons or go into exile in Belarus. For now, they remain in their bases. They will not give up their economic perks so easily.
No regular army unit joined them last weekend. But neither did they do much to prevent his march on Moscow.
The higher-ups are suspicious, especially after Surovikin's demotion in January. This hard-line general, popular with the ranks, lost command of the army in the Ukraine because he withdrew from Kherson. It was a good military decision because it was impossible to defend the west bank of the Dniper, but bad news for Putin, who punished him.
The president, the commander in chief, needs victories. Wagner was the most successful unit of his and has mutinied. Not even the National Guard, his personal army, 300,000 men who report directly to him, is used to gain ground in the Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has run out of margin for error and his generals are not capable of giving him a saving victory.
