The PP would reach an absolute majority in the cities of Málaga, Córdoba and Almería, it would touch it in Cádiz, Granada, Huelva and Jaén, and it would obtain a simple majority in Seville (traditionally socialist stronghold). According to Centra, Fundación Centro de Estudios Andaluces, the popular ones would dye the entire map of Andalusia blue after the municipal elections of the next 28M.
The party of Juanma Moreno, president of the Junta, would consolidate its power after these elections, maintaining its position in the municipalities of Málaga, Córdoba and Almería, where it would improve its results with respect to the previous elections and, according to the vote estimate, it would have high probability of wresting power from the PSOE in Huelva and Granada, and from Adelante Andalucía in Cádiz.
In the Andalusian capital, now governed by the PSOE, the dispute would be more open but the PP would also win, with one more mayor than the Socialists, according to the estimate of the vote in this study. In Jaén, for their part, they would stay one councilor from the absolute.
The study, carried out between October 21 of last year and January 17 of this year with a sample of 8,200 people, leaves Ciudadanos out of any municipal representation, while pointing out that the results would leave the PSOE only with the possibility of governing in Seville, via pacts with the left, while in Cádiz it gives Adelante that possibility if the best of its scenarios comes true.
The Socialists would become the second force with the most votes in all the provincial capitals, except in Cádiz, where this position would be occupied by Adelante.
In Seville, out of a total of 31 councillors, the PP would obtain between 13 and 14; the PSOE would achieve between 12 and 13; Forward 2 or 3; and Vox another 2.
The capital of Malaga, one of the strongholds of the PP, would give the popular a resounding absolute majority with 16 or 17 councillors; while the PSOE would stay with 11 or 12; Forward with 2; and Vox with one or none.
As for Granada, the estimate (made in December, before the appointment of the PP candidate, the councilor Marifrán Carazo), shows a possible absolute majority for the popular with between 13 and 14 councilors of the 27 that the consistory has, while that the PSOE would be left with 9 or 10; Go ahead with 2 or 3; and Vox with 1 or 2.
The PP would also widely certify its mayoralty of Córdoba, where it would reap an absolute majority with between 15 and 16 councilors, against the 8-9 of the PSOE; 2 from Vox; UI 1-2; and 0-1 for Podemos.
The survey in Cádiz also leaves the popular ones with possibilities of an absolute majority, since it gives them between 13 and 14 councilors (there are 27 in total), while Adelante would be the second force, with 8 councilors, and the PSOE the third, with 5 or 6.
Almería would once again be confirmed as another stronghold of the PP with an absolute majority in its town hall, with between 14 and 15 councillors, compared to 8-9 for the PSOE; 2 from Vox; and 1 or 2 of Podemos.
In Huelva, the PP would also be between the simple and the absolute majority, with 13 or 14 councillors, while the PSOE would obtain 10 or 11; Vox 2; and Forward one or none.
The capital of Jaén would have a simple majority of the popular, with 13 councilors, 12 from the PSOE and 2 from Vox. EFE
