The PNV has narrowly beaten EH Bildu in the closest Basque elections, winning in votes, although tying in seats, and Imanol Pradales will almost certainly be the next lehendakari, probably with the support of the PSE. This is the headline of the very close election day in the Basque Country. Basque nationalists, however, have reasons to be concerned about the rise of EH Bildu, which has achieved its best historical result, has tied seats – the distance until yesterday was 10 seats – and has won in Gipuzkoa and Álava.
The jeltzales, meanwhile, have endured the pull in Bizkaia. The territory in which the Basque Nationalist Party was born 129 years ago continues to be its great bastion and allows it to continue as the party with the most votes in the face of the push of EH Bildu, although the 10-seat advantage it had over the nationalist coalition has disappeared before the growth of the candidacy led by Pello Otxandiano.
Until the final count is closed on Friday, the PNV and EH Bildu have tied at 27 seats (out of a total of 75), so that the jeltzales have lost 4 seats and the nationalist coalition has gained six parliamentarians. The PSE, meanwhile, has achieved 12 seats (up 2), the PP has obtained 7 (in 2020 it achieved 6 in coalition with Ciudadanos), Sumar has obtained a representative and Vox has maintained its parliamentary membership.
In this way, the Basque nationalists have achieved their great objectives of the night. They have won votes over EH Bildu, despite this tie in seats, they will be able to govern hand in hand with the PSE and, furthermore, they will be able to do so with an absolute majority, by surpassing the 38 seats between the two formations (they have added 39). However, in Sabin Etxea they also detect some worrying signs.
The feeling of the Basque nationalists is no longer that of having EH Bildu on their heels, but practically on par. The Abertzale coalition has reduced those 10 seats of difference in less than four years, it is ahead in the younger age groups and has a broader territorial presence than that of the Jeltzales, as the map of the autonomous community of Euskadi shows, dyed the turquoise green of the coalition in two thirds of its territory (ignoring the Navarrese factor and the weight of EH Bildu there).
Fortunately for their interests, the Jeltzales will have a new legislature to try to rebuild themselves and they will be able to do so from the comfort of the absolute majority and without the pressure of the electoral calendar, beyond the European elections in June. It will be time to reflect on how to stop some trends that seem persistent.
Almost certainly, Imanol Pradales will be able to swear in the position of Lehendakari under the Gernika tree before the summer. The horizon of Basque politics involves a coalition government with the candidate Jeltzale as lehendakari and advisors from both his own party and socialists. The absolute majority with the PSE was, along with the victory against EH Bildu, the other major objective of the PNV last night. And it has implications for the two major parties in Spanish politics.
The PSE has managed to grow in seats, consolidate its role as arbiter of Basque politics and, by winning the PNV in votes, has avoided being in the predicament of having to justify a possible no to EH Bildu in the event that the coalition had tax on votes and seats. The socialists have, once again, the key to governability and will use it to facilitate a government similar to the one that Iñigo Urkullu has presided over in the last four years, probably gaining weight in the distribution of ministries.
The PP, meanwhile, is on the verge of achieving its great objective: regaining relevance in Basque politics. They would have achieved it if PNV and PSE had not achieved an absolute majority, something that would have forced them to look at the popular ones. Javier de Andrés' candidacy has managed to gain representation and votes, but he will have a secondary role in Basque politics.
The PP, in addition, once again positions itself as the fourth force in the Basque Parliament in the face of the disaster of the confederal left, an issue that deserves a separate chapter.
The known as the fifth space of Basque politics, which won the 2015 general elections in Euskadi in votes and the repetition of those general elections, in 2016, in votes and deputies, has been left with only one parliamentarian. Sumar has achieved this, with its head of the Álava list, Jon Hernández, current general secretary of the Communist Party of Euskadi and deputy within the Elkarrekin Podemos coalition during the last legislature.
Sumar's candidate for lehendakari, Alba García, has been left out of the Basque Parliament, while Podemos' candidacy has not obtained representation. The purple formation has gone from having 11 deputies in the 2016-2020 legislature and six in the last term to being left out of the chamber. The decision to attend separately has proven to be political harakiri, as the polls suggested. Vox, finally, has managed to keep its representative in the Basque Parliament, Amaia Martínez, by barely surpassing the 3% barrier in Álava.
The Basque elections leave a more nationalist Basque Parliament (PNV and EH Bildu add two more seats) in which, however, the independence agenda will have less relevance. The PSE will have a crucial role and Eneko Andueza will set the pace for the PNV regarding the territorial issue. Pedro Sánchez will also be able to breathe easy, since the reverberations of yesterday's elections in Madrid will be very limited. The PNV will have time to rebuild, although yesterday it was able to confirm that it already has EH Bildu face to face.
