The Spanish vote suffered intense turbulence during the last days of the electoral campaign on July 23, while polls could not be published. Between the 13th and the same day of reflection, a significant number of voters decided to go vote or change the ballot at the last minute that they would later deposit in the ballot box, according to what is extracted from the methodological study on voting trends published yesterday by the Center of Sociological Research (CIS) with a sample of more than 27,000 interviews.
Two major trends occurred during those decisive days. On the one hand, a weakening of the PP's expectations, especially marked after the three-way debate that Alberto Núñez Feijóo did not attend; and, on the other, a mobilization of left-wing voters that led the PSOE to achieve one million more votes and Sumar to improve its intention to vote during the 72 hours prior to the opening of the polling stations.
The big loser during those days before the elections was the PP. On the 13th, hours after the televised face-to-face with Pedro Sánchez, Feijóo had a direct voting intention of 27.9% among the voters who chose to go to deposit their option at the polls. However, after the three-way debate, those expectations fell to 22.5%. Almost five and a half points less in six days. During the closing of the campaign and the day of reflection (when up to 5% of those surveyed had not decided their vote), the PP stagnated at 23%.
In between, there was an interview on TVE in which the popular president defended that his party had always revalued pensions with inflation. It cannot be said that there was a transfer to the PSOE in that direct intention to vote that the PP lost, since the Socialists maintained their expectations during the electoral campaign in the environment of 28%. Yes, there was a growth of Vox, which in the hours before the elections improved its expectations.
Yolanda Díaz did benefit from the last days of the campaign in which she did not stop growing as an electoral preference among voters. Sumar's direct voting intention was 12% on July 14. However, in the day of reflection it grew to 15.6%. The turning point for Díaz was, and this is demonstrated by the CIS data, the three-way debate, a contest from which the formation settled above 14%, unprecedented until then.
The CIS shows that the left mobilized remarkably during the last days of the electoral campaign, while the right worsened its support. The PSOE and Sumar bloc reached a voting intention of 41.9% the day before the elections, while the right-wing bloc, PP and Vox, reached 33.7%. On the 13th, the left added 40.3% and the right, 35.9%.
The CIS also details voting preference by sex and by age. The PSOE achieved majority support, both in ballots by mail and in direct intention to vote, among women. 38% of the voters opted for the Socialists, compared to 28% who did so for the PP. Sánchez also forged his results in the youth vote. 33.7% of those surveyed between the ages of 18 and 24 opted for the PSOE, compared to just 20% who did so for the PP.
Pedro Sánchez currently has options to obtain an investiture, and that is possible thanks to the fact that the PSOE brought together a large number of potential voters from the left and from other formations during the electoral campaign. According to the CIS study, 70% of PSOE voters in 2019 said that they would take the socialist ballot again, a figure higher than the 64.4% that the June pre-election survey of the same public body showed. In addition, almost one in five of the former voters of Unidas Podemos said they would vote for the PSOE, a percentage that in the CIS pre-election survey was 15.9%. The great result of the socialists in Catalonia is explained, in part, because 20.9% of the supporters of the commons in 2019 and 15.7% of those of the ERC responded that they would opt for the socialist ballot. Finally, Sánchez managed to reduce the potential flight of voters from the PSOE to the PP from 9.1% in June to 7.4%. The transfer was decisive.
These differences are widened in voting by mail, where the fidelity of Socialist voters reached 72% and the transfer to the PP was only 1.7%. 30.9% of those surveyed who had opted for remote suffrage acknowledged having voted for the PSOE, compared to 20.6% who answered PP. Sumar achieved 20.6% support and Vox, 7.8%. The coalition with options to form a government, therefore, reached 51.5% compared to 34.1% of the right in this modality.
Did fear of Vox or the call to “repeal sanchismo” influence the vote during the electoral campaign? Two out of three respondents responded to the CIS that they decided their option to support political proposals that they do like. However, 17.5% thought they would vote not because of their preference, but because they opposed political proposals from other formations.
The Spaniards responded to the CIS that they mostly believed that Feijóo would be president of the government. Half of those surveyed expected it to be so. On the other hand, barely one in three bet that it would be Sánchez. Asked about his preference as the future president of the government, Feijóo also suffered a notable setback during the electoral campaign. On July 13, 32.8% expressed their sympathy for the PP candidate, a percentage that fell to 25.9% in the day of reflection.
