In the coming years, two key situations will occur that will affect the labor market: the aging of the population that will create the need to replace the numerous workers who retire (corresponding to the baby boom generation) and business development with new job profiles. employees, especially specialized technicians.
The projection made by Caixabank Dualiza in its annual report, presented this afternoon in Barcelona, is that in the next eight years, until 2030, 8.6 million jobs will be generated. 25% will be for Vocational Training (FP) technicians.
Will there be enough young people with vocational training for these positions? asks the study A new vocational training law for new times, directed by Juan Pablo Gamboa and Mónica Moso. No. There will be about 100,000 jobs (92,500 is the specific figure) that cannot be filled with technicians, because there will not be enough graduates.
And this deficit of graduates can precipitate important business decisions for the country's economy, such as the relocation of companies in search of local employees, the hiring of university graduates who are overqualified for that job offer, or the hiring of people without studies for that specialty. . Or even the search for foreign workers, as is happening in Germany.
In any case, the need for companies to hire vocational training graduates, which is already happening in the present, contrasts with the 32% youth unemployment rate.
This study was presented during an event that brought together representatives of the educational community and was attended by the president of CaixaBank, José Ignacio Goirigolzarri.
Does it mean that vocational training places have to be increased? The answer is also negative. The resolution to this imbalance comes not only from an increase in supply but also from a reduction in abandonment. "Only if almost all those who enroll in a training cycle obtained a degree, we would cover a large part of this deficit," maintain Gamboa and Moso, who have analyzed the big data and the professional families remain to be detailed. The study has been prepared through the FP Observatory by CaixaBank with the collaboration of Orkestra-Basque Competitiveness Institute of the University of Deusto.
Gamboa and Moso maintain that this deficit will be mitigated by the new supply of vocational training places that are opening up in these courses thanks to European funds and the adaptation of the cycles' study plans to the needs of the productive fabric. All of this promoted by the new FP law. But these improvements, in any case, will begin to be seen in 2026.
"We will have older people who need to retrain in their jobs, for example in technological issues or digitalization, and young people who will have to replace them," says Gamboa.
Thus, the study asks how much qualified work will be generated. 80% of jobs will be released to replace those who are going to retire. Extrapolating retirements and new jobs amounts to 8,654,362 jobs in total. And they estimate that around 25% will be for FP. That is, more than two million (2,131,325).
Specifically, more than one million (1,219,136) correspond to higher-level vocational training students and slightly less (912,189) to those who are studying an intermediate degree. On the other hand, 250,000 young people will graduate in this period.
The sectors where the most employment will be generated will be commerce, education, hospitality, construction and industry. The study does not delve into professional families that will be more in demand.
In any case, commerce, in a broad sense, with logistics, storage and sales issues, will be the area where the most vocational training professionals will be required, 242,380 opportunities in higher degree cycles and 203,868 in medium degree cycles, followed by the manufacturing industry. (153,332 for the higher and 103,560 for the middle) and health activities (101,517 for the higher and 112,805 for the middle).
The study highlights that increasing the rates of completion of VET studies within the stipulated time will be a key aspect. "We need a more effective and efficient system," says Mónica Moso. Effective in terms of ensuring that the majority of those who enroll end up graduating, she explains. And efficient, she adds, in that they do it in two years, which is the time of the degree, and not in three or four years.
Premature abandonment in Spain stands at 16%. They are students between 16 and 25 years old who do not have post-compulsory studies. However, in mid-grade vocational training, 40% drop out or change cycles.
The study has also analyzed which are the professional families that bring together the highest percentage of graduates, as well as the families in which a higher percentage of technicians are employed in the sectors for which they have been trained.
On the other hand, the study indicates that part of this effect comes from the vertical imbalance that occurs when some people occupy jobs for which they are overqualified or underqualified.
In 2021, 36.3% of people with university studies held jobs that would correspond to vocational training graduates, mainly from higher degree cycles, although also from lower levels.
In turn, 67.4% of people with higher vocational training were employed in positions that could be performed by mid-level professionals or those with lower educational levels.
This imbalance has a negative impact on the entire educational system, in terms of investment in non-profitable education. But at the same time, this overqualification causes personal costs, due to an increase in frustration among those who consider that they have been trained for higher positions, and business costs due to a higher turnover rate.
"Spain faces three great challenges regarding vocational training," says Moso, and not only a greater number of professionals. "It is also possible to improve quality, professionals with digital skills, languages, capable of cooperating... and aligned with the needs of companies." Finally, the third great challenge is social inclusion, the possibility of attracting young people who are on the margins of the educational and/or labor system.
