Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo demonstrate their political authority with millions on the table of the Council of Ministers or filling bullrings. The mobilization of their own electorate is key for the left: if Podemos collapses, the autonomous governments of the Valencian Community or the Balearic Islands would collapse; and in the PP they hope that its collapse will not come from the hand of Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Vox. In Catalonia, the nuances multiply because the dispute is not PSOE-PP, and because the consequences will lead to the general ones and beyond.
The 28-M will set the ground on which ERC, Junts and PSC will prop up their projects: three electoral appointments in a year and a half, with the Catalans closing the cycle, perhaps earlier than expected. On Sunday the victories will be sung and the procession of defeats will go inside. “We leave politics for the 29th”, they admit in the campaign headquarters but the calculators are already going at full speed. An extra dose of pragmatism will be applied to add power. Five days of calls for a useful vote have arrived, blowing up bridges, if any remain standing, between independentistas.
ERC does not renounce Barcelona, but has shifted the focus of its campaign from the PSC battle to the classic Cainite dispute with Junts: 1-O, its paternity and spirit, and the history of corruption. The Republicans suffer from the difficulties to retain the vote in the capital – between 32 and 42%, according to the poll – and admit that the voting border with the PSC is dry in the metropolitan area, so now ERC is looking for the votes de Junts to prevent the PSC from disputing the overall municipalist victory.
ERC left Jordi Turull's men for dead, immersed in their internal quarrels, but the convergent gene persists and Xavier Trias is its prophet: "if it is convergent, let them get annoyed." The claim –sought or improvised– aims to mobilize the electorate that led him to the mayoralty in 2011 with anticolauism as currency. He has lowered expectations of Ernest Maragall and has become the target of Republican darts. The Government's management falls short and ERC now denounces a "sociovergent" State operation, Junts is accused of being "ashamed" of the independence movement and returning to 3%.
In parallel, Gabriel Rufián acts as a mobilizing letter in the metropolitan area. His “tick-tock” directed at Núria Parlon and Antonio Balmón and criticism of the socialist “cortijo” do not seek local victory, but rather increase the percentage of the ERC vote with an eye on upcoming electoral appointments. "Increasing the base" involves easily exceeding 20% of the vote in the metropolitan area -18% in 2019- and advancing in its outer area while maintaining Sant Cugat or ringing the bell in Rubí.
In Girona, the former socialist minister, now minister of the ERC, Joaquim Nadal, asked for a vote for the Republicans one kilometer from where Salvador Illa sang the funeral for the ERC government. The PSC also disputes ERC Tarragona and Lleida, where Junts' votes could be key.
It will be a post 28-M for equilibristas in Junts. Trias avoids photos with Laura Borràs, who will predictably see this week how the Central Electoral Board puts an end to his institutional career, and the central act of the campaign is dispatched without him or Carles Puigdemont. The ex-president did participate in an event with Artur Mas to support the incombustible Miquel Noguer in Banyoles - 16 years in the mayor's office: CiU, PDECat and Junts-. Apart from Barcelona, being competitive against ERC due to the pro-independence pedigree in the interior regions can be Junts' saving grace.
Meanwhile, the PSC clings to the moderation of Illa, the strength of its acronym and, on Friday, to the Sánchez effect to decant the vote of that 9% of voters who decide at the last minute. The Catalan socialists will see their numbers skyrocket due to the implosion of Ciudadanos in the metropolitan area, but the reaffirmation of the majorities of L'Hospitalet, Cornellà or Santa Coloma de Gramenet will fall short if Barcelona does not fall on Collboni's side.
The latest polls leave victory within reach of Ada Colau –another thing is to govern–. If Colau loses; Yolanda Díaz, she loses. The vice president has balanced her campaign except with Colau. The consequences of what happens with Podemos in Madrid and Valencia will be up to Ione Belarra and her family and, on the way to the generals, Sánchez may suffer the consequences. But in Barcelona they all play it at the same time and the victories are incompatible with each other.
