The publication of several surveys that advance a very tight fight between the PNV and EH Bildu marks the beginning of the Basque pre-campaign, pending a date for the elections to be set. The three surveys published in recent days, all carried out by pollster companies with experience and knowledge of Basque reality, place the Jeltzales and the Abertzale coalition within a very tight margin, giving an advantage to the group led by Pello Otxandiano in two of the cases and the candidacy of Imanol Pradales in one of them.
Specifically, from last Friday until this Monday they have published ETB surveys, through their EiTB Focus, prepared by Gizaker; the Vocento group, through Ikerfel; and Naiz, led by Aztiker. The main distorting element of the results is that it is not yet definitively known what will happen with Podemos and Sumar, which in all probability will compete separately, so that these demoscopic works have been forced to propose the two hypotheses or, in the case of the Aztiker survey, to propose that all this political space will come together as a single political option.
Taking into account the two great unknowns of the Basque elections, that is, knowing which party will be the first force and whether PNV and PSE will add a majority, the surveys offer even vote ranges, although different results. The EiTB Focus survey predicts that the PNV will be the first force with 28 seats, compared to EH Bildu's 26; If Sumar and Podemos competed together, the Jeltzales would be left with 27 seats.
In the case of Ikerfel's survey for Vocento, meanwhile, it points out that the first political force would be EH Bildu, with 27 seats, which could be 27-28 if Podemos and Sumar compete separately; The PNV, for its part, would achieve 25-26 seats, regardless of what happened in the space of the federalist left.
Aztiker's demoscopic work for Naiz, finally, places EH Bildu as the first force, although with a very wide range that goes from 24 to 27 seats; The PNV would be in a range of between 24 and 25 seats. This survey is the only one that only asked about the possibility of Podemos and Sumar running together.
As for the other big unknown, the possibility of PNV and PSE maintaining their absolute majority, there are some differences between the surveys, although they all agree in granting between 11 and 12 seats to the socialists.
The EiTB Focus survey is the one that gives a more consolidated majority to the sum of PNV and PSE, one of the hypotheses that would remove the possibility of a change of government in Ajuria Enea. This survey, specifically, gives 40 seats to the sum of these two forces (28 12); If Podemos and Sumar attended together there would be 38 seats, right on the limit of the majority.
Ikerfel's survey, meanwhile, suggests that these two parties would achieve between 36 and 38 seats, no matter what happens in the Podemos and Sumar space; That is, they would move within the limit of that absolute majority.
Thirdly, the Aztiker survey gives between 35 and 37 seats to the sum of PNV and PSE, so that they would be on the verge of a majority, but without achieving it.
As for the rest of the parties, the three surveys place the PP on its electoral ground, maintaining its current 6 seats, and Vox in a situation similar to the current one, fighting to keep its representative in the Basque Parliament.
In relation to the space of Podemos and Sumar, the surveys show that competing separately, as everything indicates, would leave them in a very weak position. EiTB Focus grants 2 seats to Podemos and a single representative to Sumar, while Ikerfel places Sumar with 3 representatives and leaves the purple party out of the Basque Parliament. Due to the particularities of the electoral system, this fragmentation would favor, according to EiTB Focus, the PNV and the PSE, which would obtain one more seat each. Ikerfel, on the other hand, points out that EH Bildu and the socialists would benefit from this division, each formation with one more representative.
Beyond the details of the results, what the polls show is that the Basque elections will be presided over by unprecedented equality, which will force the parties to do their best in the coming weeks. The two main candidates are still very unknown (around half of the electorate does not know them) and the percentage of undecided people is high, so the electoral campaign will be key to deciding the vote.
