Like Spain, Scotland was abuzz with rumors over the weekend about whether its first minister would resign or continue fighting. Like the PSOE, the SNP led a coalition caught by the hair, in its case due to differences with the Greens over the course to follow in environmental matters, gender identity and sex change. But unlike Pedro Sánchez, Humza Yousaf has found no alternative but to give up, give up and say goodbye.
“It has been a great honor to lead my country, but now the best thing is to make way for someone else. “I would rather pass on the baton than give up my values and principles,” she said very coldly at a press conference at Bute House in Edinburgh, his official residence. Scotland and the SNP enter a new stage full of uncertainty.
After abruptly dismissing his two Green ministers from the Government last week, Yousaf found himself at a dead end. The conservatives took the opportunity to present two motions of censure, one to him personally and the other to the entire Executive, and all the other parties announced that they would support them. The Prime Minister lacked one vote to survive, and two equally humiliating options to achieve it: either back down and ask for forgiveness from the former partners whom he had just gotten rid of, accepting their demands, or put himself in the hands of Alex Salmond (the leader of the SNP who lost the 2014 referendum), assume his independence strategy and form an electoral coalition of equals, despite the fact that he only has one seat (compared to the SNP's 63), and it is a rebound (the turncoat Ash Regan) . Both were unviable.
The result is that a 28-day period is now open for Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament) to elect a new prime minister, and if he fails, regional elections will be called, which in theory should not have been until 2026 and is what the opposition would like. In practice, the only one who will have a chance to lead the Executive will be the candidate proposed by the SNP, speculating with names like Kate Forbes, who already ran for the position a year ago, or John Swinney, a technocrat who was already at the head of the Party. between 2000 and 2004. In any case, everything indicates that he would lead an unstable government, marked by the decline and loss of supremacy of the nationalists after 17 years in power.
Although Yousaf's resignation was the cherry on top, the SNP's original sin was losing the September 2014 independence referendum by 55 to 45 per cent. Alex Salmond resigned and was succeeded by Nicola Sturgeon, who prolonged the party's era of dominance with major electoral victories. But the foundations of the house were shaking, because the conservative governments in London and the Supreme Court had bolted any door to sovereignty.
In this way, the nationalist group was corroded from within. Salmond was accused of sexual abuse and broke with his successor and former protégé Sturgeon for supporting the pressing of charges and the opening of the case. After being exonerated, he formed Alba, an alternative independence party. Later, the prime minister and her husband were arrested on suspicion of embezzlement (the use of money donated for a hypothetical referendum for the election campaign, a case that remains open). Meanwhile, criticism of the SNP's management of Health, Education and public services in general increased, especially as inflation and the cost of living crisis broke out after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. At the same time, internal tensions exploded in a party that has a rural and an urban sector, a conservative right wing in economic matters, in favor of lowering taxes and encouraging companies, and another progressive in social and environmental matters, united only by the glue of the desire for independence.
Sturgeon fell due to the combination of the financial scandal and opposition to her gender policy and the approval of a trans law very similar to the Spanish one, which gave enormous facilities to change sex even for minors without the need for parental consent. , and was eventually overturned by the British Supreme Court. The battle for succession was won by Yousaf, his dolphin, but he inherited the poisoned chalice of a divided party, without a strategy for independence (which is its reason for being), and which after seventeen consecutive years in power cannot oust Nobody blames her for problems such as the deterioration of educational standards, the very long queues for operations and treatments in public health, the increase in crime, obesity and drug addiction, the deterioration of infrastructure...
Looking ahead to the British general elections, the polls place it tied with Labor (both at 32% support), but this would translate into the loss of half or more of its 43 deputies in Westminster. To change this trend, Yousaf chose to break the coalition with the Greens, throw ballast and remain free to go back on environmental policy (elimination of 75% of the carbon footprint by 2030) and trans rights, appealing thus to the most socially conservative voters. He miscalculated his strength, and he had no choice but to leave. Unlike Sánchez, he has hung up the white flag and handed over his weapons. Scottish independence has not yet found a way out of the labyrinth.
