Economists and historians see social events very differently. The former, especially if they are liberals and supporters of austerity, see recessions as inevitable events, necessary corrections for their proper functioning. Thanks to them, recoveries are more robust. On paper, that model works. It is seen in the graphs. Everything that goes down, goes up. And vice versa. Historians, on the other hand, consider that a recession always leaves all kinds of casualties. Frustrated life expectancy. Truncated personal projects. Traumatized generations. Characters like Javier Milei emerge from situations like these.
The recent history of Argentina has been a succession of recessions, adjustments, wrong policies, corruption and a lot of social inequality. Since democracy arrived in Argentina, forty years ago, the periods of stability have been minimal. The norm has been hyperinflation, poverty, debt, negotiations with the IMF and the harsh discipline imposed by that institution, which keeps society in a situation of dislocation.
Javier Milei wants to fix all that. He promises the "Liberal Revolution". He promises to make Argentina the power it was in his day (something that sounds a lot like the Make America Great Again of a Donald Trump he admires). And for this he presents a recipe that breaks with everything that has been known up to now. Close the Central Bank, dollarize the economy, reduce social spending to a minimum, privatize, deregulate. As one of his followers has said, "break everything that has been done up to now to do it again". Milei declares himself a libertarian, an anarcho-capitalist. He sounds modern. But he is not so. Milei wants freedom for everything. Except to abort. The first thing he will do if he wins is to annul the pregnancy termination law, approved in 2020. Another small detail: among the men who surround the candidate there is a lot of understanding towards the military junta of the 70s. That of the thousands of disappeared .
Milei is an economist and son of the working class. He lived a tumultuous childhood, with a violent father with whom he has reconciled not so long ago. He is a product of television, where he has become famous thanks to his brutal language against politicians, whom he has described as "parasites, useless, thieves." He also accuses them of lacking ideas. He has them all.
Of the entire history of Argentine democracy, Milei only saves a single politician, Domingo Cavallo, the economist who worked for President Carlos Menem between 1991 and 1996, a period in which he stabilized the economy at the price of a harsh adjustment that triggered the unemployment. She went back a few months in 2001 to try to salvage that endless adjustment. He then made the decision that has made him go down in the history of the Argentine economy. The "corralito", the restriction on the withdrawal of cash from banks in a climate of financial panic that ended up bringing the country to chaos.
Cavallo can be a good reference of what awaits Argentina with Milei. Both have been full of praise for each other in recent days. The former Minister of Economy has well described where Argentina was in the 1990s, and where it is today. "So, when I was going to university, there was no way that young people would listen to me, they were Marxists... Not now, Milei is listened to, it's full of liberals."
Javier Milei has obtained a voting intention that is above 30%. He has many numbers to become president, and only Patricia Bullrich, the woman with the heavy hand (who has obtained more than 27%), can stop him. Right against extreme right. That is the dilemma that the Argentines will face in the month of October. If Bullrich wins, chances are there will be more of the same. In other words, a policy that does not know how to reduce inequality, that does not know how to get rid of corruption. If Milei wins, anything can happen. Also that the system is broken.
Next September 11 will be the 50th anniversary of the coup against Salvador Allende in Chile and the start of neoliberal policies on the continent. Half a century later Argentina can be the laboratory of this type of ideas, this time of its most radical version.
