No, never, are the two favorite words of unionists in Northern Ireland, almost the only ones in their political dictionary. They refuse to even consider the possibility of the reunification of the island, they used them to oppose the autonomy of the province and the Good Friday agreements. And when they switched gears and decided to say yes to something, it was Brexit and it backfired because Boris Johnson lied to them like knaves and set up a virtual border with the rest of Britain.
The question is whether now, when the amended London-Brussels agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol to facilitate trade and resolve jurisdictional issues is announced, are they going to respond with the usual no, over our dead bodies, or are they going to Give compromise a chance. Enthusiastic endorsement surely not, but Prime Minister Sunak would settle for a grudging silence. And score a political goal that he needs.
The stew, according to sources in both Downing Street and Brussels, is practically cooked and ready to serve on the plate, lacking only the final touch of salt and pepper. So much so that the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will meet today in the British capital with Sunak to resolve the last fringes, and perhaps even sign.
The British would have come up against an edge a few years ago, when they negotiated Brexit, if the EU had made all the concessions they are now going to get. But then Brussels wanted to slap the UK on the head, make its exit an example of what happens when you leave the biggest single market in the world. London responded by getting cocky despite its position of weakness, and presenting a law -contrary to international law- by which it unilaterally arrogated the power to breach what it had agreed to if it so pleased. The result has been a climate of mutual mistrust, irritation, intransigence and constant bickering unbecoming of allies.
As soon as he arrived at Downing Street, Sunak struck an immensely more conciliatory tone than his predecessors Johnson and May, and the negotiations proceeded with great strides. London allowed the EU real-time access to its electronic information on commercial traffic to Northern Ireland, and Brussels has responded by agreeing to a green lane for products destined for the Ulster market, and a red lane (with more checks and paperwork). for those who follow the Republic.
That alone will solve a lot of the bureaucratic problems that have arisen, and the so-called sausage dilemma, how can a sausage from a Leicester factory not be sold in Belfast supermarkets and eaten in restaurants? from Derry. It was an issue that unnerved Unionists, because it was easier to find manufactured food in the Republic than in England, and they saw the province being pushed towards integration with the rest of Ireland, the acabose.
They will probably say yes to that commitment, even though the word is not part of their vocabulary. But they are also demanding (along with the bloc of about twenty viscerally eurosceptic Tories in the House of Commons) that the UK be restored to full sovereignty, or what they see as such. That the European norms stop applying completely in Northern Ireland, that the European courts have no jurisdiction, that the current Protocol is not modified, but that it is deleted. An intermediate solution? No. never, over our dead body.
But since Ulster has to be part of the single market so that there is no hard border with the Republic, the compromise has been inevitable. The EU has agreed that the Northern Irish courts resolve commercial disputes in the first instance, and that the Stormont legislature can comment on the application of community rules, but has insisted that its courts have the last word. London has achieved a lot, but not everything. Will it be enough for the lords of no?
